387
FXUS64 KBRO 221733
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1133 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
KBRO DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING WAVES OF DRIZZLE, LIGHT RAIN, AND
SHOWERS MOVING FROM GENERALLY NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE BRO CWFA.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS BEING GENERATED, IN PART, DUE TO A CLOSED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ROUGHLY 60 MILES EAST OF SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AREAS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TODAY
AND TONIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 69C CORRIDOR, AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH
AND EAST OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA. RAPIDLY DRYING WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE COAST OF
LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, WELL BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE ANTICIPATED, COURTESY OF GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES, THE SUSTAINED
CHANCE OF RAIN, AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SUSTAINED AND REINFORCED BY
THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW.
FINALLY, ELEVATED SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL ENSURE A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
A 500MB TROUGH WORKS OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE COASTAL LOW AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE GULF,
BRINGING BACK MORE TYPICAL LATE FEBRUARY WEATHER AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP
LOWS BACK INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE LOWS WARM TOWARDS
NORMAL THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY
FROM THE PACIFIC NW WITH A VERY LIMITED WINDOW FOR ANY RAIN AND A
BRIEF NORTHERLY BREEZE. TEMPERATURES MAY DIP BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY
MORNING DUE TO ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT QUICKLY
REBOUND AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AGAIN.
RH VALUES DROP BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS AT THE MOMENT STILL WELL BELOW
ANY FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. WITH LOWS CRASHING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WINDS DROPPING OFF, PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG MAY FORM, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
SITES AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE OR RAIN THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNIGN TOMORROW. THERE MAY A BRIEF LULL IN LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR/MVFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRANSLATES NORTH. OTHERWISE, NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 23 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 27 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 10.5
FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 1:50 CST/7:50 UTC. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST DURING THE PERIOD AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF AMERICA. ADVERSE TO HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED DUE
TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATED BY THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY FROM THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SUNDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING MARINE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO THE NEW WEEK. GENERALLY
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH A BRIEF NORTHERLY BREEZE AND LOW CHANCE OF
A PASSING SHOWER. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ON FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 43 41 62 45 / 40 30 0 0
HARLINGEN 43 38 61 43 / 50 30 0 0
MCALLEN 44 42 66 45 / 40 20 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 45 41 69 42 / 30 10 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 47 43 57 51 / 60 40 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 44 39 59 46 / 50 30 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
175.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...22-GARCIA
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