891
FXUS64 KBRO 270810
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
310 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
* FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
* HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN AS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS, HOWEVER TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
BASED ON THE CURRENT PATTERN OF HOW STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND
THEIR TRACKS, ALONG WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC, THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. AS MENTIONED BEFORE, THE CURRENT WPC GUIDANCE HAS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF STARR AND ZAPATA ARE IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, MOST OF THE CWA IS NOW IN A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, AND THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION
OF KENEDY COUNTY IS NOW IN A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WHILE MULTIPLE FLASH FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR MANY PARTS OF THE CWA TONIGHT, MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THUS THE CONCERNS FOR MORE FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE. PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION AS INDICATED BY A SPECIAL MIDNIGHT RELEASE THAT
RECORDED PWAT VALUES OF 2.09 INCHES. CONSIDERING THAT MORE FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY TODAY, THE ENVIRONMENT STILL SEEMS VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. CURRENT CAM MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST
THAT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP OVER THE SAME AREAS
LEADING TO TRAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS FURTHERING THE INCREASE IN THE
CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOOD.
WHILE THE FOCUS FOR THIS EVENT IS MOSTLY ON FLOODING RAIN, THAT IS
NOT TO DISCREDIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. SPC HAS ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY, AND THEN KEEPS MOST OF THE CWA IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR TOMORROW. THE
MAIN HAZARDS CONTINUE TO BE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL, HOWEVER THERE
IS A LOW POSSIBILITY OF WEAK TORNADOES OCCURRING AS WELL.
AS THE DAY ON FRIDAY PROGRESSES, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS
HELPING TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFF
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE WEST TO
EAST AS IT DOES SO ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS TO
TAKE OVER FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
AS FOR THE TEMPERATURES, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH TODAY AND
FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S. WHILE THE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S
WITH A FEW PLACES GETTING INTO THE LOWER 70S.
LASTLY, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR TODAY, HOWEVER
BY TONIGHT THE WAVES AND SWELL ARE BOTH EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY
EVENING AS A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE (20 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS. OTHERWISE, RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES START THIS
WEEKEND IN THE 60S WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S BY MIDWEEK. VERY WARM
TO HOT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS OVER MEXICO EXTENDING INTO SOUTH TEXAS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
ON SATURDAY, EXCEPT FOR THE 70S AT THE BEACHES. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S, EXCEPT NEAR
THE COAST, ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE
TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SOME HEAT INDICES NEXT
WEEK MAY REACH 100 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
CURRENTLY SEEING MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS, HOWEVER SOME POCKETS VFR
CEILINGS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BEFORE
MORE VFR CEILING SETTLE IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HRRR PROJECTS THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING LATE IN THE MORNING AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
CAN PRODUCT LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND REDUCED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BRING LOCALLY ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY
TO THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION
TO THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN TONIGHT
RESULTING IN MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THAT
WILL MOST LIKELY NEED SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION. HOWEVER A LOW-
END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ONGOING SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION TO POSSIBLE LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20 PERCENT) OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX BY SATURDAY
NIGHT LEADING TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS. LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 82 69 81 70 / 50 80 60 0
HARLINGEN 84 67 82 67 / 70 80 70 0
MCALLEN 85 70 84 70 / 70 80 70 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 82 67 84 68 / 80 80 50 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 68 76 69 / 50 80 60 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 67 81 68 / 60 80 70 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ248>255-351-353>355-
451-454-455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...64-KATZ
LONG TERM....63-KC
AVIATION...64-KATZ
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