256
FXUS64 KBRO 281134
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
634 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO CONTINUES TO DRIVE
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. 00Z SOUNDING FROM KBRO AND CURRENTLY
WSR 88D VAD SHOWS A VIGOROUS AND DEEP 30-50KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET WITH TAPPING INTO THIS UNUSUAL EARLY SEASON TAP OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER
2 INCHES FEEDING INTO SOUTH TEXAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH
HIGH INSTABILITY AND A CONTINUOUS DIFFLUENT FLOW TO MAINTAIN A HIGH
CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH CURRENT (200 AM LT)
RADAR SHOWS A SOLID LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE COAST AND
LIMITED REDEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE LINE THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
OPPORTUNITY OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER LOWS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT, THIS MAY OCCUR BY
NOON. WITH THIS SAID, HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
UNTIL NOON FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL,
FALLING ON TOP OF THE WIDESPREAD 5-15 INCHES OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS,
WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE SATURATED CONDITIONS.
MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES TO THE EAST AND DRIER CONDITIONS FINALLY ROTATING AROUND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE RAIN
CHANCES ENDING AND FLAT RIDGING REPLACING THE UPPER TROUGH.
CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, BUT IT WILL FEEL
VERY HUMID AND SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE DURING CLEAN UP OPERATIONS.
HIGHS TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR, CONTINUED
CLOUDY SKIES AND SATURATE SOILS LIMITING HEATING. LOWS TONIGHT NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH MINIMUMS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG
THE COAST AND OVER THE RGV. WARM AND HUMID SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
REBOUNDING WELL INTO THE 80S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
WARMER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK, AS ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BETWEEN SUNDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN THE LOWER AND UPPER 90S
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET
DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. SOME AREAS COULD SEE HEAT INDICES
OVER 100 DEGREES, PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
WITH SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL LARGELY BE
OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR
MONDAY, TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MOSTLY KBRO AND KHRL THIS
MORNING WITH OVERALL COVERAGE SHOWING SIGNS OF DECREASING. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD END OF BE EAST OF THE 3 REGIONAL
AIRPORTS BY 28/18Z. OTHERWISE, MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ARE BEING
OBSERVED AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER AT THIS LEVEL MOST OF THE
DAY. MODELS SUGGEST LOW MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH MVFR
VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG DEVELOP AFTER 29/09Z. PROBABILITY OF IFR
CEILINGS ARE AT 45-50 PERCENT. MODERATE AND OCCASIONAL GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE NOTED NEAR AND IN WAKE OF CONVECTION WITH AN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO RESUME LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NE MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS. A LARGE FETCH OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IS DRIVING HIGH SEAS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF IMPACTING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 1 PM WITH A POSSIBLE
EXTENSION FOR THE GULF WATERS IF SEAS DO NOT SUBSIDE. WIND AND SEAS
BEGIN TO LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. STILL A MODERATE WIND
AND SEA REGIME MAY ALLOW FOR EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ELEVATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE GULF WATERS.
BY MONDAY, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BEFORE SEAS PICK UP
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THESE ELEVATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR MONDAY, WHEN WINDS WILL
TEMPORARILY TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 69 86 71 / 90 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 82 66 86 68 / 90 0 0 0
MCALLEN 82 69 91 72 / 80 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 82 67 91 69 / 60 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 69 79 70 / 90 10 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 67 83 69 / 90 10 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-
454-455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ130-
132-135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...59-GB
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...59-GB
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