279
FXUS64 KBRO 282001
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
301 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THIS EVENING AS THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO EXIT OFF TO THE EAST WITH ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT, DRAWING IN MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THROUGHOUT TODAY, CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF SHORT TERM AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS, THE HRRR AND RAP, HAVE STAYED CONSISTENT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND SPI IN THE LATER AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE THE SEVERE PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
DATA SHOWS 1,500-2,000 J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE, WIND AND THERMAL
PROFILES ARE LESS SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP UPSCALE GROWTH AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FREE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOP, THE STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MUCH
SMALLER IN AERIAL EXTENT AND MUCH SHORTER IN DURATION, WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. THE STRONGEST OF
THE CELLS COULD CONTAIN VERY HEAVY, BUT BRIEF, RAIN WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL AND HIGH WIND GUSTS. YET, AGAIN, ALL
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO END AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
OTHERWISE, A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE WITH
BREEZIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. GUSTS UP TO
20-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME.
GIVEN THE PLENITUDE OF MOISTURE AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS TONIGHT, HAVE BUMPED UP LOW TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES
USING A BLEND OF 50/50 OFFICIAL/CONSSHORT, RESULTING IN MID-TO-
UPPER 60'S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND LOWER 70S ACROSS
MOST OF THE RGV. USED A BLEND OF OFFICIAL/BCCONSHORT TO WARM
TEMPERATURES BY 1-2 DEGREES FOR SATURDAY, RESULTING IN LOWER 90'S
FOR MUCH OF INLAND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, WITH MID-90'S POSSIBLE IN
SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER AS WELL AS UPPER 70S AT
SPI. VERY SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
UPDATE:
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. WARM AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/:
WARMER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK, AS ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BETWEEN SUNDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN THE LOWER AND UPPER 90S
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET
DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. SOME AREAS COULD SEE HEAT INDICES
OVER 100 DEGREES, PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
WITH SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL LARGELY BE
OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR
MONDAY, TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
GUIDANCE IS A BIT INCONSISTENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 FROM 19 Z TO 00/01 Z THIS
EVENING AS LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE MUCH
SMALLER SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THAN YESTERDAY WITH BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL
AS SMALL HAIL AND/OR HIGHER GUSTS IN STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVING WAY TO IFR AT
KBRO AND LIFR AT KHRL AND KMFE AS ELEVATED MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO
LEAD TO LOW CEILINGS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE PRE-DAWN TO
DAWN HOURS LATE TONIGHT AS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
RETURNING THROUGHOUT SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: ALTHOUGH GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS, SWELL DRIVEN BY THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RESULT
IN ELEVATED SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC)
HEADLINES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH 4 TO 6 FEET
WAVES. ASIDE FROM POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY: SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER
TO SLIGHT (3 FEET) THROUGHOUT MONDAY, BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
TO MODERATE (4-6 FEET, OR HIGHER) AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND ONWARD, RESULTING IN INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SCEC AND, OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 70 86 71 88 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 67 91 69 93 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 70 94 72 96 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 68 93 69 94 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 78 71 79 / 10 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 68 85 69 87 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab TX Page Main Text Page