378
FXUS64 KBRO 291745 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES
THIS WEEKEND
NOW THAT THE RAIN HAS ENDED, DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO MID-LEVELS AND
THE CALENDER APPROACHING APRIL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL SEE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE RIDGING TODAY AND LEESIDE
TROUGH SUNDAY TO WARM UP THE ATMOSPHERE. 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGE 19-
24C WHICH WILL SUPPORT UPPER 80S TO MID 90S TODAY AND LOW TO MID 90S
SUNDAY. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (30 TO 40%) PROBABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 95 DEGREES MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
SPREADING NORTH ALONG THE I-95C CORRIDOR. DEW POINTS IN THE 70-74
DEGREE RANGE, THANKS TO A MODEST ONSHORE FLOW, ALONG AND EAST OF I-
69C SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO EDGE HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES.
ALTHOUGH THIS PLACES MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN A MINOR HEAT RISK,
CITIZENS AND OTHER COMMUNITY WORKERS CLEANING UP AFTER THE RECORD
RAIN EVENT SHOULD PAY EXTRA ATTENTION TO POSSIBLE HEAT RELATED
ILLNESS IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. WARM AND HUMID TONIGHT AS
LOWER CLOUDS ROLL IN AND SOUTHEAST WINDS MAINTAIN SOMEWHAT
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.
AT THE BEACHES, A LONG PERIOD HIGHER SWELL WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
WHICH WARRANTS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND SUNDAY.
BREAKING SURF MAY BE A MODERATELY HIGH TODAY BUT STAYING JUST BELOW
SURF ADVISORY LEVELS OF GREATER THAN 6FT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE LARGELY ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE EARLY
AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, UNTIL AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST, SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN
THE ZONAL PATTERN BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT OF ZONAL FLOW,
CONDITIONS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL LARGELY REMAIN WARM AND DRY,
WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
SURFACE WINDS WILL LARGELY BE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, BUT WILL BACK TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION MONDAY AND REMAIN
EASTERLY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, HOWEVER, IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND HAVE VERY
LITTLE, IF ANY, IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
MAY BE AT MOST TWO TO THREE DEGREES COOLER ON TUESDAY THAN ON
MONDAY, LARGELY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
WEDNESDAY AND ALSO POSSIBLY ON THURSDAY. WHILE THE AIR WILL BE TOO
CAPPED FOR ANY SORT OF CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE, HUMID
SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED HEATING
DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ALSO INCREASED HEAT INDICES FOR BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE HIGHER ON THESE DAYS
DUE TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT. MANY AREAS IN THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY COULD SEE THE HEAT INDEX EXCEED 100 DEGREES
ON BOTH OF THESE DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE HOTTEST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, GETTING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
THROUGHOUT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON OTHER DAYS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY....VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE TERMINALS
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS DUE TO INCREASED SFC HEATING HAVE HELPED TO
CLEAR/BURN OFF THE LINGERING MVFR/IFR CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING.
LATER ON TONIGHT, MVFR TO IFR CIGS/LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS HRL AND MFE DUE TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND THE COPIOUS AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE
STILL REMAINING FROM THE DEPARTED STORM SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE
INSTANCES OF MISTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS WELL TONIGHT. MODEL AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A VERY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT UP TO
ABOUT 950 MB THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TOO AT TIMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 10-15 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS DURING THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUOYS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF,
ESPECIALLY BUOY 42020 CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LONG PERIOD (8-9
SECOND) 7-9 FOOT SWELL TRAIN BEING DIRECTED TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK TO MODEST OVER THE GULF AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC EDGING FARTHER EAST THE SWELL TRAIN IS
ANTICIPATED TO STEADILY LOWER OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS. IN THE
MEANTIME, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE GULF WATERS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED UNTIL 1 PM BUT COULD BE LOWERED IF SWELLS SUBSIDE FASTER
THAN EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
BE FAVORABLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY ON
MONDAY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL
VEER TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY
AND SEA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND/OR SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THESE INCREASED WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 72 88 71 89 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 69 92 67 89 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 72 95 71 94 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 70 95 67 95 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 80 70 79 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 70 87 69 84 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...59-GB
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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