026
FXUS64 KBRO 291946
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
246 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE FINALLY RETURNED AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD OR THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. A NEARBY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. LOW STRATUS AND SOME MIST IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE DEPARTED
STORM SYSTEM. MODEL DATA AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
SATURATED LAYER FROM THE SFC UP TO ABOUT 950 MB THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS; 80S NEAR THE COAST DUE
TO SOME ONSHORE FLOW INFLUENCES. IT WILL ALSO BE HUMID AS WELL
WITH DEWPOINTS (TDS) IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. NIGHTS WILL BE WARM
AND HUMID WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
LOADED THE NBM WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE LARGELY ZONAL THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM,
UNTIL DEEP H5 TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S.
AROUND NEXT THURSDAY. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS/RGV WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
THUS TREND WARM AND DRY, WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PUSH INTO AND STALL OVER THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, TEMPORARILY BACKING SURFACE WINDS TO EAST, BUT
OTHERWISE HAVING VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE AT MOST TWO TO THREE DEGREES COOLER ON
TUESDAY THAN ON MONDAY, LARGELY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SUBSEQUENT DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR WEDNESDAY AND ALSO POSSIBLY ON THURSDAY. A FRONT
WILL INTERACT WITH THE DRYLINE FARTHER NORTH (NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS)
AND WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THEN, WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF
ENERGY TO PUSH DOWN INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
WHILE THE AIR WILL BE TOO CAPPED FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE
DRYLINE, SOUTH WINDS WILL SUPPORT WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE, RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS/WEATHER.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ON THESE DAYS DUE TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, RISING INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 OUT WEST THROUGHOUT. FURTHERMORE, MANY
AREAS IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA COULD SEE 100 TO 105 DEGREE
HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY (FRIDAY WITH THE
HELP OF ENHANCED MOISTURE). HIGH TEMPERATURES ON OTHER DAYS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY....VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE TERMINALS
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS DUE TO INCREASED SFC HEATING HAVE HELPED TO
CLEAR/BURN OFF THE LINGERING MVFR/IFR CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING.
LATER ON TONIGHT, MVFR TO IFR CIGS/LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS HRL AND MFE DUE TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND THE COPIOUS AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE
STILL REMAINING FROM THE DEPARTED STORM SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE
INSTANCES OF MISTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS WELL TONIGHT. MODEL AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A VERY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT UP TO
ABOUT 950 MB THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TOO AT TIMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 10-15 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS DURING THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
(SCEC) CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR
THE GULF WATERS DUE TO HIGH, LONG PERIOD SWELLS CONTINUING IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PARTS
OF NEXT WEEK, A MODERATE SWELL AND ONSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WE EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL STIFFEN TO
MODERATE OR FRESH ON THE GULF FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODERATE SEAS WILL BUILD TUESDAY, AND SCEC CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT. A LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY EVEN DEVELOP ON THE GULF WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS, WHILE SEAS BUILD SLOWLY TOWARD 7 FEET OFFSHORE
THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 73 88 71 89 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 70 92 69 91 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 73 95 72 95 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 71 94 68 95 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 72 80 71 79 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 87 69 86 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....54-BHM
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
IDSS...65-IRISH
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