554
FXUS64 KBRO 300812
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
312 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL WITH SOME SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WHICH
WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH DAYS, BUT MODERATE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO GET INTO THE UPPER 90S
AND EVEN TRIPLE DIGITS (MOST LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
VALLEY). CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN IF SPENDING TIME OUTSIDE. SKIES SHOULD
START OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY BOTH MORNINGS AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY SUNNY OR
PARTLY CLOUDY BY THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S, AND THE AIR WILL BE SATURATED WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG IN SOME AREAS THROUGHOUT DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS, AND THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.
RIP CURRENT RISK IS HIGH TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
SEA HEIGHTS AND LONG PERIOD SWELL THAT IS STILL ONGOING IN THE
AREA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW EARLY THIS WEEK TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND, AS A 500MB LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE GENERALLY FALLING APART OR SETTING UP OFFSHORE AS A WEAK
TROUGH.
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK AND
IN NORTHERN MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK, ENHANCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND STRENGTHENING A LLJ ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL SET
UP BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST, TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE MID-MORNING TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST JET, NEAR 52 TO 55 KTS, SETS
UP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY JUSTIFY A WIND
ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NBM DOES VERY LITTLE WITH ANY POTENTIAL RAINFALL UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND OR JUST BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PWAT VALUES POOL A
LITTLE NEAR ZAPATA AND STARR COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT NEAR THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MAY BE WORTH WATCHING FOR ANY
ISOLATED MEXICAN CONVECTION RUNNING FOR THE BORDER. OVERALL, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM, WITH
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
TAFS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR OVERNIGHT AND DROP INTO IFR BY FOR
BRO BY AROUND 08Z AND POSSIBLY HRL AS WELL (TEMPO ADDED AS THERE
IS MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR HRL). MFE SHOULD STAY MVFR BEFORE
RETURNING TO VFR BY 20Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEASTERLY
(MFE MAY SEE A BRIEF SHIFT TO NE AROUND 20Z), AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF COASTAL FOG DEVELOPING AND MAKING ITS WAY INLAND
(POTENTIALLY IMPACTING BRO AND HRL) BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...MARINE CONDITIONS MAY BE A LITTLE ROUGHER
FOR SMALLER CRAFT DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS ON THE OUTER GULF WATERS
THIS MORNING, BUT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS WINDS DECREASE AND SEA HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY FALL. CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAVORABLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
BACK FROM A SOUTHEASTERLY TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE
TO LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO STRENGTHENS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, BUILDING SEAS
AND MAINTAINING ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
DUE TO HISTORICAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE MID TO LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY, WATER LEVELS ACROSS BOTH THE ARROYO COLORADO AND RIO
GRANDE REMAIN ELEVATED AND BOTH THE MAIN FLOODWAY AND NORTH
FLOODWAY ARE FLOWING.
THE ARROYO COLORADO REMAINS ABOVE 20 FEET AT THE HAGT2 GAUGE IN
HARLINGEN, BUT CONTINUES TO FALL. THE GAUGE IN RIO HONDO, ACHT2,
LAST REPORTED 21.9 FEET AMIDST A RAPID RISE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH DATA LOSS AFTER 2 AM FRIDAY.
THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO, SBNT2, REACHED ACTION STAGE
AROUND 12 PM FRIDAY, AND CRESTING NEAR 54 FT, JUST SHY OF MINOR
FLOOD STAGE AT 55 FT. WATER LEVELS AT SAN BENITO ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL BACK BELOW ACTION STAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THE RIO GRANDE AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE, LOBT2, HAS REACHED 18.9 FT,
AND FORECAST TO RISE TO JUST OVER ACTION STAGE AT 24 FT MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW ACTION
STAGE.
THE MAIN FLOODWAY THROUGH WESLACO AT WSLT2 IS NEAR 20.15 FT AND
FALLING, WITH THE NORTH FLOODWAY NEAR SEBASTIAN AT SBST2 STILL
RISING AT 12.7 FT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 89 71 89 71 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 92 68 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 94 71 94 72 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 93 68 96 71 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 70 79 71 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 69 85 69 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
HYDROLOGY...56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...55-MM
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