101
FXUS64 KBRO 301754 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1254 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ZONAL WITH SOME SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WHICH
WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH DAYS, BUT MODERATE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO GET INTO THE UPPER 90S
AND EVEN TRIPLE DIGITS (MOST LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
VALLEY). CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN IF SPENDING TIME OUTSIDE. SKIES SHOULD
START OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY BOTH MORNINGS AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY SUNNY OR
PARTLY CLOUDY BY THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S, AND THE AIR WILL BE SATURATED WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG IN SOME AREAS THROUGHOUT DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS, AND THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.
RIP CURRENT RISK IS HIGH TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
SEA HEIGHTS AND LONG PERIOD SWELL THAT IS STILL ONGOING IN THE
AREA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW EARLY THIS WEEK TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND, AS A 500MB LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE GENERALLY FALLING APART OR SETTING UP OFFSHORE AS A WEAK
TROUGH.
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK AND
IN NORTHERN MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK, ENHANCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND STRENGTHENING A LLJ ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL SET
UP BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST, TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE MID-MORNING TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST JET, NEAR 52 TO 55 KTS, SETS
UP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY JUSTIFY A WIND
ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
NBM DOES VERY LITTLE WITH ANY POTENTIAL RAINFALL UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND OR JUST BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PWAT VALUES POOL A
LITTLE NEAR ZAPATA AND STARR COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT NEAR THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MAY BE WORTH WATCHING FOR ANY
ISOLATED MEXICAN CONVECTION RUNNING FOR THE BORDER. OVERALL, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM, WITH
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION.../18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY AVIATION MESSAGES:
* MVFR CIGS FROM THIS MORNING TO IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A CAPPING INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE WEAKENS.
* MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO RETURN LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AMID LIGHT WINDS AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE; SOME LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
AS OF THIS UPDATE, MVFR CIGS WERE TAKING PLACE AT ALL OF THE
LOCAL TERMINALS WITH SOME HZ REPORTED AT KBRO. ACCORDING TO THIS
MORNING'S 12Z KBRO SOUNDING, A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION NEAR THE
SFC AT AROUND 940 MB WAS SIGHTED. THIS EXPLAINS WHY THERE WAS AND
STILL IS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE WITH SOME HZ AROUND THIS MORNING
AS THE INVERSION HAS HELPED TO TRAP PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. LATEST GOES-16 VISIBLE SATELLITE CHANNEL REVEALS A
BKN-OVC DECK OF CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION.
CLEARING IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TO EAST
AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND THEREFORE CLOUD COVERAGE AND FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO OVER THE LOCAL TERMINALS. THIS IS DUE TO A
WIDENING OF DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS FROM INCREASED SFC-BASED
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. LATER TONIGHT,
AFTER SUNSET, LOW STRATUS AND THE PROBABILITY OF MIST/FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE PROLIFIC RAIN
STORM, AND INCREASED RADIATIONAL COOLING LEADING TO NARROWING
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. NBM PROBABILITIES, BUFKIT SOUNDINGS, AND
DESI ARE ALL SUPPORTING THIS POTENTIAL. LOW STRATUS, MIST, AND
FOG DEVELOPMENT COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS 04Z AND PERSIST THROUGH
15Z GIVEN THE VERY JUICY ENVIRONMENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THAT SAID, MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE A
RETURN TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE
INSTANCES OF LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS AS WELL.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KTS GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, THESE WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS, IF NOT TREND TOWARDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...MARINE CONDITIONS MAY BE A LITTLE ROUGHER
FOR SMALLER CRAFT DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS ON THE OUTER GULF WATERS
THIS MORNING, BUT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS WINDS DECREASE AND SEA HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY FALL. CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAVORABLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
BACK FROM A SOUTHEASTERLY TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE
TO LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO STRENGTHENS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, BUILDING SEAS
AND MAINTAINING ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
DUE TO HISTORICAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE MID TO LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY, WATER LEVELS ACROSS BOTH THE ARROYO COLORADO AND RIO
GRANDE REMAIN ELEVATED AND BOTH THE MAIN FLOODWAY AND NORTH
FLOODWAY ARE FLOWING.
THE ARROYO COLORADO REMAINS ABOVE 20 FEET AT THE HAGT2 GAUGE IN
HARLINGEN, BUT CONTINUES TO FALL. THE GAUGE IN RIO HONDO, ACHT2,
LAST REPORTED 21.9 FEET AMIDST A RAPID RISE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH DATA LOSS AFTER 2 AM FRIDAY.
THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO, SBNT2, REACHED ACTION STAGE
AROUND 12 PM FRIDAY, AND CRESTING NEAR 54 FT, JUST SHY OF MINOR
FLOOD STAGE AT 55 FT. WATER LEVELS AT SAN BENITO ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL BACK BELOW ACTION STAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THE RIO GRANDE AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE, LOBT2, HAS REACHED 18.9 FT,
AND FORECAST TO RISE TO JUST OVER ACTION STAGE AT 24 FT MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW ACTION
STAGE.
THE MAIN FLOODWAY THROUGH WESLACO AT WSLT2 IS NEAR 20.15 FT AND
FALLING, WITH THE NORTH FLOODWAY NEAR SEBASTIAN AT SBST2 STILL
RISING AT 12.7 FT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 71 89 71 86 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 68 91 68 89 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 71 94 72 91 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 68 96 71 93 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 70 79 71 78 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 85 69 84 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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