805
FXUS64 KBRO 301937
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
237 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
RAIN-FREE, UNSEASONABLY WARM, AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HEAT RISK
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY MINOR ACROSS THE REGION WITH POCKETS OF
MODERATE HEAT RISK. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE
PROGGED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER
80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 90S FURTHER INLAND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
LOW STRATUS, MIST, AND FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
FOR TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS, SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE RECENT HISTORIC RAIN STORM EVENT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
LOADED THE NBM WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE LARGELY ZONAL THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM,
UNTIL DEEP H5 TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S.
AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY, WITH POTENTIALLY DESTABILIZING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, IF NOT IN FUNCTION THEN IN FORM. DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS/RGV WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL THUS TEND TO BE WARM AND DRY,
WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS PART OF THE LARGER SCALE FLOW, WITH MOISTURE INFLOW
FROM THE GULF HELPING TO EKE OUT A FEW SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
BASED SHOWERS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW (<10%) FOR ANY RAIN
UNTIL A PORTION OF THE UPSTREAM TOUGH BREAKS OFF AND HEADS EAST
OVER NORTH TEXAS, BRINGING A FRONT TO THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING,
LIKELY OVER THE RANCHLANDS, BUT SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA
FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO MID SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
NOT BE OF BIBLICAL NOAH'S ARK PROPORTIONS, BUT RATHER ON THE ORDER
OF TENTHS OF AN INCH FOR THE 18 TO 24 HOUR WINDOW FOR RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 90S WITH A FEW CENTURY
MARKS OUT WEST ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPRESSED IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80 NEXT SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S, BUT POST FRONTAL LOWS MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S.
AVIATION.../18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY AVIATION MESSAGES:
* MVFR CIGS FROM THIS MORNING TO IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A CAPPING INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE WEAKENS.
* MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO RETURN LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AMID LIGHT WINDS AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE; SOME LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
AS OF THIS UPDATE, MVFR CIGS WERE TAKING PLACE AT ALL OF THE
LOCAL TERMINALS WITH SOME HZ REPORTED AT KBRO. ACCORDING TO THIS
MORNING'S 12Z KBRO SOUNDING, A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION NEAR THE
SFC AT AROUND 940 MB WAS SIGHTED. THIS EXPLAINS WHY THERE WAS AND
STILL IS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE WITH SOME HZ AROUND THIS MORNING
AS THE INVERSION HAS HELPED TO TRAP PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. LATEST GOES-16 VISIBLE SATELLITE CHANNEL REVEALS A
BKN-OVC DECK OF CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION.
CLEARING IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TO EAST
AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND THEREFORE CLOUD COVERAGE AND FLYING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO OVER THE LOCAL TERMINALS. THIS IS DUE TO A
WIDENING OF DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS FROM INCREASED SFC-BASED
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. LATER TONIGHT,
AFTER SUNSET, LOW STRATUS AND THE PROBABILITY OF MIST/FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE PROLIFIC RAIN
STORM, AND INCREASED RADIATIONAL COOLING LEADING TO NARROWING
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. NBM PROBABILITIES, BUFKIT SOUNDINGS, AND
DESI ARE ALL SUPPORTING THIS POTENTIAL. LOW STRATUS, MIST, AND
FOG DEVELOPMENT COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS 04Z AND PERSIST THROUGH
15Z GIVEN THE VERY JUICY ENVIRONMENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THAT SAID, MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE A
RETURN TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE
INSTANCES OF LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS AS WELL.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KTS GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, THESE WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TO SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS, IF NOT TREND TOWARDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING TO MODERATE ON
MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH ON THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CHOPPY
BAY WATERS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL DEVELOP. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION, WITH A GOOD (40-60%) CHANCE THAT LOW END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 72 87 72 86 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 69 89 70 90 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 73 94 74 94 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 69 95 72 95 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 78 71 79 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 70 84 70 85 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....54-BHM
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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