349
FXUS64 KBRO 310526
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1226 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
RAIN-FREE, UNSEASONABLY WARM, AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HEAT RISK
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY MINOR ACROSS THE REGION WITH POCKETS OF
MODERATE HEAT RISK. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE
PROGGED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER
80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 90S FURTHER INLAND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
LOW STRATUS, MIST, AND FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
FOR TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS, SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE RECENT HISTORIC RAIN STORM EVENT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
LOADED THE NBM WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE LARGELY ZONAL THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM,
UNTIL DEEP H5 TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S.
AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY, WITH POTENTIALLY DESTABILIZING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, IF NOT IN FUNCTION THEN IN FORM. DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS/RGV WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL THUS TEND TO BE WARM AND DRY,
WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS PART OF THE LARGER SCALE FLOW, WITH MOISTURE INFLOW
FROM THE GULF HELPING TO EKE OUT A FEW SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
BASED SHOWERS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW (<10%) FOR ANY RAIN
UNTIL A PORTION OF THE UPSTREAM TOUGH BREAKS OFF AND HEADS EAST
OVER NORTH TEXAS, BRINGING A FRONT TO THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING,
LIKELY OVER THE RANCHLANDS, BUT SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE CWA
FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO MID SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
NOT BE OF BIBLICAL NOAH'S ARK PROPORTIONS, BUT RATHER ON THE ORDER
OF TENTHS OF AN INCH FOR THE 18 TO 24 HOUR WINDOW FOR RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 90S WITH A FEW CENTURY
MARKS OUT WEST ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPRESSED IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80 NEXT SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S, BUT POST FRONTAL LOWS MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE MVFR AT AREA AIRPORTS BUT WIDESPREAD FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH WILL REDUCE
CONDITIONS TO IFR AND LIFR. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
STARTING AT 08-09Z AND CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 19Z WHEN CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN TO MVFR AND COULD POTENTIALLY RETURN TO VFR BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AND TURN NORTHEASTERLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING TO MODERATE ON
MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH ON THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CHOPPY
BAY WATERS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL DEVELOP. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION, WITH A GOOD (40-60%) CHANCE THAT LOW END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 87 72 86 74 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 89 70 90 72 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 94 74 94 76 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 95 72 95 74 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 71 79 73 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 84 70 85 71 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....54-BHM
AVIATION...55-MM
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