646
FXUS64 KBRO 311728
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1228 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH DAYS,
BUT MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL POSSIBLY CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO GET
INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
VALLEY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN IF SPENDING TIME
OUTSIDE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY WHICH
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES, BUT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS
TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. WIND SPEEDS, HOWEVER, ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT AND TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TODAY, TONIGHT, OR TOMORROW.
RIP CURRENT RISK IS MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO LINGERING SWELL THAT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY INTO
TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS A
500MB TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK AND IN
NORTHERN MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK, ENHANCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND STRENGTHENING A LLJ ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL SET
UP BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST, TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE MID-MORNING TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST JET, NEAR 55 KTS, SETS UP
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY JUSTIFY A WIND
ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WORKS SOUTH
THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS, BRINGING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL.
OVERALL, WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON
SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE GULF WATERS.
THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE INDICATES BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL
OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS OVERSPREAD ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THERE WILL BE A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT HRL AND BRO, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT MFE AND
SUBSEQUENT TAFS MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO VISIBILITY SHOULD THE
POTENTIAL INCREASE AT MFE. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT SHOULD
RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BY MID MORNING TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOWER SEA
HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH
THE BAY AND THE GULF WATERS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE
TO LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO STRENGTHENS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUILDING SEAS AND
MAINTAINING ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS, CONTINUING ADVERSE MARINE
CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
DUE TO HISTORICAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE MID TO LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY, WATER LEVELS ACROSS BOTH THE ARROYO COLORADO AND RIO
GRANDE REMAIN ELEVATED AND BOTH THE MAIN FLOODWAY AND NORTH
FLOODWAY ARE FLOWING.
THE ARROYO COLORADO REMAINS ABOVE 20 FT AT THE HAGT2 GAUGE IN
HARLINGEN, BUT CONTINUES TO FALL. THE GAUGE IN RIO HONDO, ACHT2,
IS REPORTING 14.65 FT AND FALLING.
THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO, SBNT2, REACHED ACTION STAGE
AROUND 12 PM FRIDAY, AND CRESTED AT 54.04 FT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
JUST SHY OF MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT 55 FT. WATER LEVELS AT SAN
BENITO HAVE FALLEN TO 53.63 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW
ACTION STAGE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE RIO GRANDE AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE, LOBT2, HAS REACHED 22.76 FT,
AND FORECAST TO RISE TO 24.2 FT, JUST OVER ACTION STAGE AT 24 FT,
THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE FALLING BELOW ACTION STAGE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN FLOODWAY THROUGH WESLACO AT WSLT2 IS AT 19.87 FT AND
FALLING, WITH THE NORTH FLOODWAY NEAR SEBASTIAN AT SBST2 AT 12.69
FT AND BEGINNING TO FALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 89 73 86 73 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 90 70 88 72 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 94 73 92 75 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 95 72 94 74 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 71 78 73 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 84 71 84 71 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...22-GARCIA
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