610
FXUS64 KBRO 311930
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
230 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT
RISK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND OVER
THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY RETURN BACK TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, GENERALLY REMAINING AT SPEEDS NEAR OR
LESS THAN 5-10 MPH. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG
AND EAST OF US-281 AND OVER THE GULF WATERS. PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE HREF, INDICATE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE WILL BE OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS BEACHES, BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO ASSESS TRENDS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FOR ANY CHANGES. OTHERWISE, A MILD NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S IS EXPECTED REGION WIDE. MORNING CLOUD
COVER AND FOG WILL CLEAR BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. IN COMBINATION WITH THE HUMIDITY, A MINOR TO
MODERATE HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. REMEMBER TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE AND STAY
HYDRATED IF SPENDING TIME OR WORKING OUTDOORS. WIND SPEEDS AROUND
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO
THE 70S REGION WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN US AND MOVE INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS BY THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
INTO THE SIERRA MADRE WILL ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE ADDITION OF A DEVELOPING
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY AND ALONG THE
COAST WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MOST NOTABLY, WEDNESDAY MORNING THE LLJ ACROSS THE VALLEY AND ALONG
THE COAST LOOKS TO BE QUITE POTENT AT 55-60 KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF THESE STRONG WINDS WIND MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE AND THE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORIES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH A COLD FONT THROUGH
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CURRENTLY PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN
NEAR OR LESS THAN 20%, AND THIS WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO "FEELS
LIKE" TEMPERATURES HITTING THE LOW TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE MID VALLEY
AND INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE RANCHLANDS. WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE GULF WATERS.
THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE INDICATES BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL
OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS OVERSPREAD ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THERE WILL BE A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT HRL AND BRO, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT MFE AND
SUBSEQUENT TAFS MAY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO VISIBILITY SHOULD THE
POTENTIAL INCREASE AT MFE. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT SHOULD
RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BY MID MORNING TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND RESULT IN INCREASING SEAS.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, MARINE FOG WITH VISIBILITY AROUND
1-3 MILES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, AND MAY FALL BELOW 1
MILE TONIGHT AND REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. PATCHY MARINE FOG
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS AND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 73 86 73 89 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 70 88 72 93 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 73 92 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 72 94 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 78 73 81 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 84 71 88 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....68-MCGINNIS
AVIATION...22-GARCIA
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