209
FXUS64 KBRO 222330 CCA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
630 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE LONE STAR STATE OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS WITH THE FIRST ONE TONIGHT. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THIS FIRST
WAVE STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS ENE FROM NE MEXICO OVER TEXAS.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY (CAPE 1500-2000J/KG) AND LIFT SUPPORTED BY
THE WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW COURTESY OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SIERRA MADRE CONVECTION. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOT ALL THAT CONVINCING THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL TRACK
OVER THE WESTERN/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COUNTY WARNING AREA, SO
WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES THAT THE NBM
INDICATES. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
CONVECTIVE CELL WITH FORECAST PWATS AROUND 1.9 INCHES OR ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE. BROWNSVILLE'S 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LOW LEVEL
CAP THIS MORNING AND WITH THE SEA BREEZE MOVING WEST THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN OR BECOME STABLE TO KEEP
POPS AT OR BELOW 10 PERCENT. TOMORROW NIGHTS SHORTWAVE IS DEPICTED
TO BE WEAKER BY THE GFS/ECMWF WITH POPS AT THIS TIME 10-20
PERCENT FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
LOW TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS HIGH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT AND PERSISTENT AMONG ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE. LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S SHOULD
SUFFICE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
WHILE THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL SEE A ZONAL
FLOW LIKE PATTERN ALOFT, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL START
TO MOVE NORTHWARDS TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE FROM ABOVE THAT WILL KEEP THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ENVIRONMENT ON THE DRIER SIDE. AS SUCH, PAST
FRIDAY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
DESPITE THIS, THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA, BUT THAT COULD
PROVIDE A BIT OF INSTABILITY TO THE REGION. SINCE THERE IS STILL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PUSH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF WATERS ONSHORE, IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS TO APPEAR. HOWEVER CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS POPS LOW
(AROUND 20%) AT THIS TIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF POPS IS MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN PARTS OF STARR AND
ZAPATA COUNTIES.
AS FOR THE TEMPERATURES, SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING MORE WARM
AIR TO THE REGION. ALONG WITH THE INFLUENCE FROM THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
THAT WAS MENTIONED BEFORE, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
TREND SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. WITH THAT SAID, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S
WITH A FEW PLACES IN THE 90S. HOWEVER, BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD, THE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 90S WITH
PARTS OF STARR AND ZAPATA IN THE UPPER 90S, WHILE AREAS ALONG THE
COAST IN THE UPPER 80S. THE LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE OTHER HAND, ARE
MORE CONSISTENT AND STAY IN THE LOWER 70S EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHTTIME
HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS FORM AROUND 04 Z, AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SUBSIDE. THERE IS AT LEAST A 60% CHANCE OF
CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR AT KBRO AND KHRL, PERHAPS AROUND 05/06 Z,
TO POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS 700 FEET, HOLDING THROUGH SUNRISE. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMFE AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT KBRO AND KHRL, BUT EXPECTING TO BE MORE BRIEF IN DURATION TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY MORNING, CLOUDS RISE BACK TO
BROKEN MVFR, SCATTERED VFR AT TIMES, AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK
BACK UP TO MODERATE (GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS) LATER IN THE MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... BROAD AND SPRAWLING SURFACE
RIDGING WITH ITS CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. TO COMBINE WITH
MODERATE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, A MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND AND MODERATE SEA STATE
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST.
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...WHILE GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF SATURDAY, THERE ARE A FEW
PERIODS OF ELEVATED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER OUTSIDE OF THOSE PERIODS, WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE
WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND THAT WOULD SEE MORE SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR A LONGER TIME FOR THE LAGUNA
MADRE AND PARTS OF THE GULF WATERS. SHORT PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 75 85 75 85 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 72 88 72 87 / 10 0 0 0
MCALLEN 75 91 75 90 / 10 10 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 74 90 74 89 / 30 10 20 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 79 75 80 / 10 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 84 72 84 / 10 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...59-GB
LONG TERM....64-KATZ
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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