021
FXUS64 KBRO 231718 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1218 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
A PAIR OF 500MB SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE FIRST MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
500 MB SHORTWAVE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEIGHBORING MEXICO, LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE, RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES
NOT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THIS REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED IN THE 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S.
FINALLY, ELEVATED SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
A ZONAL FLOW INITIALLY OVER THE BRO CWFA WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED
BY 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INCREASINGLY
MORE NORTH OUT OF NEIGHBORING MEXICO AND OVER THE LONE STAR STATE.
THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE FORECAST, AIDED IN PART TO A BREEZY TO WINDY ONSHORE FLOW. IN
FACT, WIND STRENGTHS MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY
TUESDAY TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON
BOTH DAYS.
FINALLY, ELEVATED SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL
BEACHES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. MVFR CEILINGS RETURN
THIS EVENING THROUGH MID-MORNING THURSDAY.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 17.5 KNOTS GUSTING TO
AROUND 19 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 3.6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF
8 SECONDS AT 0250 CDT/0750 UTC. GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ON THE
LAGUNA MADRE, ON THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
BREEZY WINDS WITH MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
MAY BE NEEDED ALMOST DAILY, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE, CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BEGINNING LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 74 85 74 85 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 71 87 71 88 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 75 90 75 91 / 0 0 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 73 89 73 91 / 10 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 80 74 80 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 72 84 72 84 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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