006
FXUS64 KBRO 231836
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
136 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOOTS NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT, WITH
A LOW, BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR BRIEF
SHOWER, MAINLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.
HAVE STUCK WITH THE NBM FOR THIS PACKAGE, BUT BUMPED SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO NBM90 WITH LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ENHANCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
A LITTLE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL US FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WHILE A 500MB CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE WEST
COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD, ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT NEAR ZERO
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES MAY
BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY THANKS TO INCREASED FORCING FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR TO THE
REGION. THIS WILL FACILITATE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON
FRIDAY INCREASING TO THE LOW TO UPPER 90S WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. MVFR CEILINGS RETURN
THIS EVENING THROUGH MID-MORNING THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS, BRINGING SMALL CRAFT
CAUTION CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW, BUT NON-
ZERO, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WATERS NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BAY CONDITIONS MAY OCCASIONALLY TURN FROM
CHOPPY TO ROUGH EACH AFTERNOON AND A SMALL OR BRIEF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH MODERATE TO
ELEVATED WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE
PERIODICALLY NEEDED FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 73 85 74 85 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 71 87 71 88 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 75 90 75 91 / 10 0 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 73 89 74 91 / 10 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 80 74 80 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 72 84 72 84 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...56
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