703
FXUS64 KBRO 240817
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
317 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW,
BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR BRIEF SHOWER,
MAINLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. ALSO, BRIEF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ENHANCE THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED IN THE
80S TO THE LOWER 90S UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. MOSTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
ELEVATED SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, WITH WELL ESTABLISHED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHERN US. THIS WILL MAINTAIN WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TRANSPORTS GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, YIELDING A MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK
EACH AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN
US WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN BREEZY AFTERNOONS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF
25-30 MPH AS EARLY AS MONDAY. WHILE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY,
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTERACT
WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE
REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE AT KMFE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN LATER THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
12 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 5.6
FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 0150 CDT/0650 UTC. MODERATE TO
OCCASIONAL FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE TO ELEVATED SEAS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ON THE LAGUNA MADRE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW TO MODERATE
SEAS AND WINDS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS RETURN BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND RESULTS IN
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 85 74 85 74 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 87 71 88 71 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 90 75 92 74 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 88 73 90 73 / 10 0 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 74 80 74 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 84 73 84 72 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...63-KC
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