965
FXUS64 KBRO 251045
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
545 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
WARM TEMPERATURES, BREEZY WINDS, AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. MORNING STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR
BY MID MORNING TODAY, BUT SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AIDED BY
THE TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE VIA WELL ESTABLISHED LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW
(LESS THAN 10%) THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT A BRIEF, ISOLATED WAA SHOWER
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS
ELEVATED. GUIDANCE INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING
ALOFT INCREASES. THE COMBINATION OF PLENTIFUL AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL YIELD A MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE, SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
FOR THE LOWER TEXAS BEACHES, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS SEAS REMAINS ELEVATED.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION INITIALLY, WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST AS THE NEXT 500MB TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE PLAINS
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VERY WARM TO
HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF 500MB SHORTWAVES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A LOW CHANCE (20 PERCENT) OF THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS ON WEDNESDAY, AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
EACH AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
THE LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A MIX OF
VFR, MVFR, AND IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY MID MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES
AS STRATUS CLOUDS LIFT/SCATTER. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
IN SPEED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 KNOTS. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND
OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING, CONTINUING
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LOCALLY ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN LOW TO MODERATE SEAS AND LOW MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
LAGUNA MADRE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE AND SEAS TO BUILD. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ON THE LAGUNA MADRE AND EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 85 74 85 73 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 88 71 88 70 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 92 74 91 73 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 90 73 92 70 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 74 79 74 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 84 72 84 71 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....63
AVIATION...22-GARCIA
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