524
FXUS64 KBRO 261653 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1153 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE UNDER THE
DIRECT INFLUENCE OF 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH WILL STEADILY
BUILD NORTHEAST OUT OF NEIGHBORING MEXICO DURING THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE BRO CWFA FOR THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURE-WISE, RELATIVELY LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND A
BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENSURE ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
FINALLY, ELEVATED SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL PRODUCE A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION INITIALLY, WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST AS A SERIES OF 500MB TROUGHS SWING INTO THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN VERY WARM TO HOT AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ENHANCED
LIFT AND INSTABILITY FROM THE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A LOW CHANCE (20 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER VALLY AND THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. BETTER RAIN CHANCES (30 TO 40 PERCENT) ARRIVE
AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY. EXPECT BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY....LATEST GOES-19 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SFC OBSERVATIONS REVEALED A SCT-BKN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS
DECK OF VFR- MVFR OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH CLOUD BASES
RANGING BETWEEN 2,500-4,000 FEET AGL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH A FEW MVFR CLOUDS
AROUND. LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, MVFR CLOUDS/CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN. VFR-MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-30 KTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT,
WINDS SUBSIDE TO 5-10 KTS. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25
KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY: BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
14 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER 4.5
FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 1:50 CDT/6:50 UTC. GENERALLY
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
DURING THE PERIOD WITH A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT,
HOWEVER, DUE TO WINDS THAT MAY BECOME MORE BREEZY THAN FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE LAGUNA
MADRE EACH AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON THE GULF WATERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
THE GULF WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS, THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 86 73 86 74 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 88 69 89 71 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 92 72 92 75 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 91 70 93 72 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 74 81 75 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 84 71 85 72 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...66-TOMASELLI
LONG TERM....63-KC
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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