567
FXUS64 KBRO 261930
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
230 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF A ~1020 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
588 MB RIDGE, DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD OR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AID IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS TO THE LOW-
MID 90S ALONG AND WEST OF IH-69E.
MODERATE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL
PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION INITIALLY, WILL SLOWLY MOVE, WITH A STRONG EAST COAST HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING BACK TOWARD AND OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF AMERICA. INTERACTION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE AND UPSTREAM LOWER
PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT A TIGHTER GRADIENT AND STRONGER SYNOPTIC
SCALE WINDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIND OR FIRE HAZARDS IS LOW RIGHT NOW, BUT BEARS
WATCHING.
AS DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES SLOWLY EAST, THE UPSTREAM
PATTERN WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE, SUPPORTING A HIGHER
FREQUENCY MID-LEVEL WAVE TRAIN TO TRANSIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. DESPITE THE EVOLVING PATTERN, THE WEST TEXAS DRY LINE WILL
PERSIST. AS ONE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE
WEDNESDAY, SOUTHWARD EXTENDING LIFT COULD TRIGGER CONVECTION TO
THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA, OVER THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
FRONT RANGE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE EXITING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ON
THURSDAY, ALLOWING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO POTENTIALLY TRIGGER
LOCALIZED CONVECTION OVER THE CWA. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA, HOWEVER, POSSIBLY LIMITING DEEPER LIFT. THE FRONT WILL
STALL OUT IN THE VICINITY TO END THE WEEK WITH NON-ZERO BUT LIKELY
LIMITED CONVECTION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
AS MID-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO BACK AGAIN THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO
UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH, A
MORE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF ENERGY WILL GRAZE NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND
PROVIDE LIFT FOR FRONT RANGE CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE
CLEARLY NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SIGNAL FOR LOWER VALLEY
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT IS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED (30-40%).
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER (BY A FEW TO SEVERAL
DEGREES) THAN AVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES
COULD GET TO THE CENTURY MARK IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT NOT LOOKING
FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK THREAT. RIP CURRENT RISK WILL GENERALLY
BE AT LEAST MODERATE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY....LATEST GOES-19 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SFC OBSERVATIONS REVEALED A SCT-BKN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS
DECK OF VFR- MVFR OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH CLOUD BASES
RANGING BETWEEN 2,500-4,000 FEET AGL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH A FEW MVFR CLOUDS
AROUND. LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, MVFR CLOUDS/CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN. VFR-MVFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-30 KTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT,
WINDS SUBSIDE TO 5-10 KTS. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25
KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2025
MODERATE WINDS WILL GENERATE MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD OR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
(SCEC) CONDITIONS CAN'T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY DUE
TO THE WINDS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEAS WILL PREVAIL FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION, AND BRIEF, LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP OFFSHORE DUE TO HIGHER SEAS. WINDS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY, TO
MODERATE, ON THURSDAY, WITH LOWER SEAS; HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST ISOLATED (20%).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 73 88 75 87 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 70 90 72 90 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 73 93 74 93 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 70 95 72 94 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 82 75 80 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 72 87 73 85 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....54-BHM
IDSS...60-BE
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