192
FXUS64 KBRO 271134 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
634 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY WARM AND DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOW TO MID
90S ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-69E CORRIDOR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. A MODEST TO
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, TODAY AND MONDAY. ELEVATED SEAS
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD, AS THE CENTER OF 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY DIRECTLY OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY GRADUALLY EASES TOWARDS
THE EAST. A PATTERN SHIFT WILL THEN OCCUR LATER IN THE WEEK, WITH
A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES RIDING WITHIN A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE A RISK FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY BEGINNING ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED, AIDED BY A BREEZY TO WINDY ONSHORE FLOW. IN
FACT, WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH ON TUESDAY TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AT THAT TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW PASSING LOW CLOUDS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING, GENERALLY AFTER 02Z
MONDAY.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING
TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER 3.9 FEET WITH A
PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 2:10 CDT/7:10 UTC. GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST DURING THE
PERIOD WITH A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE TODAY AND MONDAY AND
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS ON MONDAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.
A BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ON THE
LAGUNA MADRE EACH AFTERNOON, IF WINDS BECOME MORE BREEZIER THAN
FORECAST.
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE APPROACH
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT FOR
SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 86 74 87 75 / 0 0 0 10
HARLINGEN 89 71 89 71 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 92 74 92 75 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 94 72 94 73 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 74 80 75 / 0 0 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 72 85 73 / 0 0 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...66-TOMASELLI
LONG TERM....63-KC
AVIATION...66-TOMASELLI
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