238
FXUS64 KBRO 271711 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1211 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY WARM AND DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOW TO MID
90S ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-69E CORRIDOR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. A MODEST TO
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, TODAY AND MONDAY. ELEVATED SEAS
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD, AS THE CENTER OF 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY DIRECTLY OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY GRADUALLY EASES TOWARDS
THE EAST. A PATTERN SHIFT WILL THEN OCCUR LATER IN THE WEEK, WITH
A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES RIDING WITHIN A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE A RISK FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY BEGINNING ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED, AIDED BY A BREEZY TO WINDY ONSHORE FLOW. IN
FACT, WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH ON TUESDAY TO WARRANT A WIND
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AT THAT TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY....LATEST GOES-EAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALED A SCATTERED DECK OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN VFR-MVFR CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVERHEAD WITH CLOUD BASES RANGING BETWEEN 2,400-3,500 FEET
AGL AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING, EXPECT FOR CEILINGS TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY VFR AS DAYTIME OR SFC-BASED HEATING INCREASES.
LATER THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT, AFTER SUNSET, EXPECT
FOR DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO DECREASE AND CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS COULD LOWER ENOUGH FOR SOME MIST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. VFR-MVFR CIGS MONDAY MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CEILINGS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS 10-15 KTS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS OR SO ON AN ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS, POSSIBLY WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AT NIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY, IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS 10-15 KTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KTS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING
TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER 3.9 FEET WITH A
PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 2:10 CDT/7:10 UTC. GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST DURING THE
PERIOD WITH A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE TODAY AND MONDAY AND
ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS ON MONDAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.
A BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ON THE
LAGUNA MADRE EACH AFTERNOON, IF WINDS BECOME MORE BREEZIER THAN
FORECAST.
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE APPROACH
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT FOR
SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 74 87 75 87 / 0 0 10 0
HARLINGEN 71 89 71 89 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 74 92 75 91 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 72 94 73 93 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 80 75 81 / 0 0 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 72 85 73 85 / 0 0 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....66-TOMASELLI
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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