518
FXUS64 KBRO 271937
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
237 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
WARM, HUMID, RAIN-FREE, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD OR
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION SITS UNDERNEATH THE NOSE AND
WESTERN FLANK OF A ~1020 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND 588 MB
DAM RIDGE.
LATER TONIGHT, AFTER SUNSET, SOME MIST OR LOW STRATUS COULD
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-69C AS
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS DECREASE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A QUIET, WARM,
AND MUGGY NIGHT TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
MODERATE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST 10-20 MPH GUSTING AS HIGH AS
30 MPH WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY AMID A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) REGIME ON
THESE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY TOPPING OUT IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ALONG AND EAST OF IH-69C AND MID 90S
WEST OF I-69C.
MODERATE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL
PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
LOADED THE NBM FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. INITIAL RATHER BENIGN
CONDITIONS WILL TURN A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. THERE IS A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ON DAY THREE,
TUESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (10 TO 15%) OF CONVECTION FOR THE
UPPER VALLEY ALONG THE RG RIVER FROM FRONT RANGE ACTIVITY. A NORTH
TO SOUTH DRYLINE WILL PERSIST IN THE BIG BEND REGION UPSTREAM.
THIS SCENARIO MAY BE A HARBINGER OF INCREASING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
LATER IN THE WEEK, DUE IN PART TO TRANSITING SHORT WAVES AND IN
PART TO THE INTRODUCTION OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVING THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, THROUGH THE LONG TERM, TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL AND WIND, FIRE WEATHER, AND HEAT THREATS
WILL BE BORDERLINE OR MUTED. RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WARM, DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE ON TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF 500
MB RIDGE NEARLY DIRECTLY OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. A TIGHTER GRADIENT ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL SUPPORT BREEZIER DAYTIME WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW FOR ANY SPECIFIC HAZARDS.
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR LATER THIS WEEK, WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTING EAST AND A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG A
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT
DAILY BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. THE FOCUS WILL BE MORE ON THE FRONT
RANGE AND WESTERN SECTIONS INITIALLY, BUT COVERAGE WILL TEND TO
EXPAND INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MODEST RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER, POTENTIALLY WORKING IN
OPPOSITION TO SURFACE BASED FORCING. A DEEP, MID-LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO BURROW INTO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY, BACKING UPPER FLOW
AND KEEPING AN EASTERN SECTION CONVECTIVE THREAT GOING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY....LATEST GOES-EAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALED A SCATTERED DECK OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN VFR-MVFR CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVERHEAD WITH CLOUD BASES RANGING BETWEEN 2,400-3,500 FEET
AGL AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING, EXPECT FOR CEILINGS TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY VFR AS DAYTIME OR SFC-BASED HEATING INCREASES.
LATER THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT, AFTER SUNSET, EXPECT
FOR DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO DECREASE AND CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS COULD LOWER ENOUGH FOR SOME MIST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. VFR-MVFR CIGS MONDAY MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CEILINGS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS 10-15 KTS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS OR SO ON AN ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS, POSSIBLY WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AT NIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY, IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS 10-15 KTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE WINDS WILL GENERATE
MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OR THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS CAN'T BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY DUE TO THE WINDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ENHANCED SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
IN PLAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, GENERALLY IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH
CATEGORY. SEAS WILL ALSO BE HIGHER. AS A RESULT, SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN STRENGTH TO MODERATE
AFTER WEDNESDAY, BUT GULF OF AMERICA SEAS MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY, DECREASING TO MODERATE AFTER THURSDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 74 88 75 86 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 72 90 72 89 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 75 93 75 91 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 73 95 73 93 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 82 75 81 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 86 73 85 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....54-BHM
IDSS...59-GB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page