784
FXUS64 KBRO 280546 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1246 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
WARM, HUMID, RAIN-FREE, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD OR
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION SITS UNDERNEATH THE NOSE AND
WESTERN FLANK OF A ~1020 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND 588 MB
DAM RIDGE.
LATER TONIGHT, AFTER SUNSET, SOME MIST OR LOW STRATUS COULD
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-69C AS
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS DECREASE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A QUIET, WARM,
AND MUGGY NIGHT TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
MODERATE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST 10-20 MPH GUSTING AS HIGH AS
30 MPH WILL TAKE PLACE ON MONDAY AMID A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) REGIME ON
THESE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY TOPPING OUT IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ALONG AND EAST OF IH-69C AND MID 90S
WEST OF I-69C.
MODERATE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL
PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
LOADED THE NBM FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. INITIAL RATHER BENIGN
CONDITIONS WILL TURN A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. THERE IS A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ON DAY THREE,
TUESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (10 TO 15%) OF CONVECTION FOR THE
UPPER VALLEY ALONG THE RG RIVER FROM FRONT RANGE ACTIVITY. A NORTH
TO SOUTH DRYLINE WILL PERSIST IN THE BIG BEND REGION UPSTREAM.
THIS SCENARIO MAY BE A HARBINGER OF INCREASING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
LATER IN THE WEEK, DUE IN PART TO TRANSITING SHORT WAVES AND IN
PART TO THE INTRODUCTION OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVING THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, THROUGH THE LONG TERM, TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL AND WIND, FIRE WEATHER, AND HEAT THREATS
WILL BE BORDERLINE OR MUTED. RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WARM, DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE ON TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF 500
MB RIDGE NEARLY DIRECTLY OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. A TIGHTER GRADIENT ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL SUPPORT BREEZIER DAYTIME WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW FOR ANY SPECIFIC HAZARDS.
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR LATER THIS WEEK, WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTING EAST AND A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG A
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT
DAILY BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. THE FOCUS WILL BE MORE ON THE FRONT
RANGE AND WESTERN SECTIONS INITIALLY, BUT COVERAGE WILL TEND TO
EXPAND INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MODEST RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER, POTENTIALLY WORKING IN
OPPOSITION TO SURFACE BASED FORCING. A DEEP, MID-LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO BURROW INTO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY, BACKING UPPER FLOW
AND KEEPING AN EASTERN SECTION CONVECTIVE THREAT GOING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
LOW LEVEL STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITY REDUCTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BRO AND HRL WITH
MIST AND LOWERING OF CEILINGS AROUND SUNRISE, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW (20 PERCENT) DUE TO GUSTY WINDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 30 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS TO RETURN TO VFR
LATER THIS MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE WINDS WILL GENERATE
MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OR THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS CAN'T BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY DUE TO THE WINDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ENHANCED SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
IN PLAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, GENERALLY IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH
CATEGORY. SEAS WILL ALSO BE HIGHER. AS A RESULT, SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN STRENGTH TO MODERATE
AFTER WEDNESDAY, BUT GULF OF AMERICA SEAS MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY, DECREASING TO MODERATE AFTER THURSDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 88 75 86 76 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 90 72 89 73 / 0 0 0 10
MCALLEN 93 75 91 76 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 95 73 93 75 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 75 81 75 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 86 73 85 73 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....54-BHM
AVIATION...63-KC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page