317
FXUS64 KBRO 281136 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
636 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY WARM AND DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOW TO
MID 90S ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-69E CORRIDOR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. A MODEST TO
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ELEVATED
SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF AMERICA. A PATTERN SHIFT WILL THEN OCCUR AS THE
WEEK DRAWS TO A CLOSE, WITH A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
RIDING WITHIN A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DAILY BEGINNING ON THURSDAY, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
PROGGED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE, NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED,
AIDED BY A BREEZY TO WINDY ONSHORE FLOW. IN FACT, WINDS MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AT THAT
TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
LOW LEVEL STRATUS WITH A MIX OF LOW END VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS TO RETURN TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN LATER THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY AFTER
02Z TUESDAY.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON APR 28 2025
BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 14 KNOTS GUSTING
TO AROUND 18 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER 4.6 FEET WITH A
PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 1:50 CDT/6:50 UTC. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
MODEST TO A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE
NEARSHORE GULF WATERS TODAY. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. A BRIEF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT DUE TO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS.
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE APPROACH
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 86 74 86 76 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 89 72 88 73 / 0 0 0 10
MCALLEN 91 75 91 76 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 94 73 93 75 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 75 80 75 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 73 85 73 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....66-TOMASELLI
AVIATION...63-KC
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