101
FXUS64 KBRO 281921
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
221 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECT TO EJECT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, RESULTING IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET AT 850 MB. THIS
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND SEASONAL, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S TOMORROW.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD GET DOWN INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION INTO A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN AS THE WORK WEEK UNFOLDS. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
WILL ARISE AS LARGE SCALE RIDGING THAT HAD BEEN CONTROLLING THE
WEATHER AND KEEPING CONDITIONS ON THE SEASONAL SIDE SHIFTS EAST.
THE EASTWARD SHIFT WILL ALLOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE PATTERN TO
DEVELOP, WHEREBY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE EAST FROM THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES INTO THE PLAINS. THE WAVES WILL STAY MOSTLY NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA, PRECLUDING MOST CONCERNS FOR SEVERE WEATHER, BUT
SOME ASSOCIATED ENERGY MAY TRANSIT FARTHER SOUTH, OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS, AND THAT IS ALWAYS A CONCERN IN TERMS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT REGION, TO OUR WEST.
TO COMPLICATE MATTERS, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH IN THE FRIDAY
TO SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THE GFS SHOWS CONVECTION FIRING UP OVER
THE RG PLAINS AND PROPAGATING SOUTH TOWARD THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
UPPER RGV FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THAT
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE LOWER VALLEY ON SATURDAY, BUT IT
WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
LET’S RESET TO WEDNESDAY. ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE UPSTREAM,
AND THE INTERACTION OF GULF OF AMERICA HIGH PRESSURE WITH THE
ASSOCIATED UPSTREAM LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE WILL ENERGIZE THE
SOUTH TEXAS WIND MACHINE, AT LEAST FOR THE LOWER VALLEY,
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY, BUT I AM NOT
CONVINCED THAT WE WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. MARINE
INTERESTS WILL FEEL THE WIND (SEE BELOW) AS WELL. WHILE ON THE
TOPIC OF MARINE INTERESTS, WE EXPECT A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND BECAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE
ELEVATED. THE RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL TEND TO BE MORE OF THE
LONGSHORE VARIETY DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST (ALONGSHORE WINDS).
THIS TYPE OF RIP CAN BE DANGEROUS SINCE IT CAN MOVE SWIMMERS
PARALLEL TO THE BEACH MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO RETURN TO SHORE.
WE MAY SEE THE FIRST OF THE FRONT RANGE CONVECTION FIRE UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND WEDNESDAY IS NOW IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK FROM SPC. MOST OF THIS INITIAL CONVECTION SHOULD STAY ON
THE MEXICAN SIDE OF THE BORDER. I EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL EACH NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT
ACTIVITY MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST THAN THAT OF WEDNESDAY, AND
THE FORECAST SHOWS A 20 TO 30% CHANCE (ISOLATED TO SCATTERED) OF
CONVECTION FOR THE MID AND UPPER VALLEY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GET A
LITTLE MORE INTERESTING. ALTHOUGH MODEST RIDGING WILL BE
TEMPORARILY IN PLACE OVER TEXAS (REMEMBER THAT PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN MENTIONED EARLIER?), A WEAK EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND PROVIDE A FOCUS ALONG THE STILL
PRIMED RG PLAINS. WE CAN’T RULE OUT SOME OF THAT MAKING IT INTO
THE BRUSH COUNTRY OR MID AND UPPER RG VALLEY. OUR BEST RAIN
CHANCES (40 TO 50%) WILL MATERIALIZE HEADING INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH DAILY QPF VALUES IN THE TENTHS OF INCHES,
POSSIBLY HIGHER (UP TO AN INCH) IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH BACK NORTH BY SUNDAY, BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WON’T EXHIBIT ANY LARGE SWINGS DURING HE LONG TERM,
REMAINING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES MAY
EVEN OUT CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING, CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
AND REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR TOMORROW AT
AROUND 16-17Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEASTERLY, BECOMING
INCREASINGLY GUSTY THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED IN THE BAY AND THE GULF
WATERS, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MODERATE TO BREEZY DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT…WE EXPECT ENHANCED WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER, IN THE MODERATE RANGE. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (10
TO 30% CHANCE) OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP OVER
THE MARINE AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 75 87 76 87 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 71 89 73 90 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 75 92 76 92 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 73 92 74 94 / 0 0 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 81 75 81 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 85 74 86 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...55-MM
LONG TERM...54-BHM
IDSS...22-GARCIA
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