074
FXUS64 KBRO 112317 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
617 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTS
FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS, BRINGING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WITH IT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE CWA, WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND DESTABILIZATION
OF THE ATMOSPHERE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND NORTHERN RANCHLANDS,
THOUGH CLEARING ACROSS THE RGV AND SPI REMAINS POSSIBLE. SPC
CONTINUES TO OUTLINE ALL OF OUR REGION WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND/OR OVERNIGHT, WITH
THE PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF HAIL.
ADDITIONALLY, WPC PLACES A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) FOR FLASH
FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL; THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-
40%) CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER
OF AN INCH TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS, RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THE UPPER RGV, WHERE
CLEARING AND A DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN ONGOING SINCE
EARLY THIS MORNING.
ON THURSDAY, THE CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES AND SPC'S
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INDICATES A GENERAL CHANCE OF SUB-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. OUR FORECAST CURRENTLY CALLS FOR A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-
30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY, POTENTIALLY
ALONG A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY, REACHING US281 LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AND A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NEAR AND ACROSS SPI.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT WE
ANTICIPATE DOWNPOURS TO BE MORE BRIEF AND LOCALIZED IN NATURE THAN
TODAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT ARE LIKELY TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AS WELL AS MAXIMIZE IN THE 90S,
POTENTIALLY NEAR, OR OVER, 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW, WEDGED BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
(MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS) AND THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE
EASTERN FLORIDA, IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SEABREEZE AND POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTO
NEXT WEDNESDAY, MAINLY EAST OF US281. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S INLAND TO NEAR 100
DEGREES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE,
PLACING A MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) HEAT RISK EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS
EVENING BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND BREAK AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND RETURN AFTER SUNRISE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT, POSSIBLY GIVING WAY
TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS, ARE LIKELY TO BECOME
MOSTLY MODERATE ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE REST OF THE PERIOD,
MAINTAINING MODERATE (3-4 FEET) SEAS. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-
40%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS WELL AS A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 94 81 94 / 20 10 20 10
HARLINGEN 79 96 79 96 / 20 20 10 10
MCALLEN 80 100 82 99 / 30 20 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 100 79 100 / 30 20 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 88 82 88 / 20 20 20 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 93 80 93 / 30 20 20 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...60-BE
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