642
FXUS64 KBRO 120527
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1227 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOKS TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ELEVATED FORCING ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LIKELY REMAINING TO THE NORTH
OF THE CWA. WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ADVECTING PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR TO THE REGION, AFTERNOON
CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 1000 J/KG. SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, PEAKING AROUND 20-30% WITH THE SEA BREEZE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S COMBINED WITH THE
INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES BRIEFLY
APPROACHING 111 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. HEAT
ADVISORIES LIKELY WON’T BE NEEDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
SHORT DURATION OF HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING CRITERIA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
GULF THIS WEEKEND, REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ENHANCE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM
COULD SUPPORT A DAILY LOW (20-30%) CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. HEAT INDICES MAY CONTINUE TO APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THIS WEEKEND, BUT VERY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN HEAT INDICES REMAINING BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT
ALL TAF SITES. VFR SHOULD RETURN BY MID MORNING, WITH ONLY BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH 12-14Z,
INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE TONIGHT. GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO
RETURN OVERNIGHT, AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GULF COULD
SUPPORT DAILY RAIN CHANCES AROUND 20-30% FOR THE GULF WATERS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 95 81 95 81 / 10 10 10 20
HARLINGEN 97 79 96 78 / 10 10 10 10
MCALLEN 100 82 101 81 / 20 10 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 100 79 100 80 / 20 10 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 82 88 81 / 10 10 10 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 94 80 93 80 / 10 10 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM....60
AVIATION...22-GARCIA
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