546
FXUS64 KBRO 130353
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1053 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
A VERY ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES WITH A
WAKE LOW ACROSS CAMERON COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF WILLACY AND HIDALGO
CONTINUING BREEZY TO VERY GUSTY WINDS INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY
OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL LOWS. MODERATE TO MAJOR
HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED, WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY FALLING JUST SHY
OF HEAT ADVISORIES ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH MOIST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE HOLDS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD,
KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LOW, BUT NOT ZERO, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. EXPECT VERY SIMILAR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
AT THIS TIME HEAT ADVISORIES DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY, BUT HEAT
INDICES MAY REACH 110 EACH AFTERNOON.
BY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY, THICK TROPICAL MOISTURE WORKS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
SETTING UP, BRINGING A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE TAF SITES WILL BE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE SLOW
NORTHEASTERLY MOTION OF THESE CELLS SHOULD KEEP THEM AWAY FROM THE
TAF SITES, THOUGH CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF MFE WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH WIND GUSTS DECREASING OVERNIGHT, AND
PICKING UP AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL ALLOW GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW (LESS THAN 10%)
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN BUMP UP TO MEDIUM (30 TO 40%) NEXT
WEEK AND MEDIUM TO HIGH (60 TO 70%) BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 82 95 81 95 / 10 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 79 97 79 97 / 0 10 0 10
MCALLEN 81 101 81 101 / 10 10 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 79 100 79 100 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 89 82 88 / 10 10 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 93 80 93 / 10 10 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ255-354-355-454-455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...60-BE
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