836
FXUS64 KBRO 131800 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
100 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1254 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
- MID-JUNE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TYPICALLY OF THE 1991-2020 AVERAGES
ON TAP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE COAST, AND INLAND, WITH LIMITED SIGNIFICANT IMPACT THROUGH
TUESDAY
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND IMPACT FOR
AT LEAST THE LOWER/MID VALLEY BEGINNING NEXT WEDNESDAY
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI JUN 13
2025
AFTER A ROBUST CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
PRODUCED SEVERAL AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN HIDALGO
COUNTY, FOLLOWED BY A "WAKE LOW/MESOSCALE HIGH" COUPLET THAT
MAINTAINED GUSTS OVER 40 MPH FOR A GOOD PART OF THE OVERNIGHT IN
CAMERON AND SOUTHEAST HIDALGO COUNTY, ALL IS MUCH QUIETER TODAY AS
THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRETTY "WORKED OVER". CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS
(CAMS) ARE SHOWING NOTHING THIS AFTERNOON, SO THE UPDATED NEAR-
ZERO RAIN CHANCES MAKE SENSE.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WE'LL BE WATCHING FOR SOME
ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST FROM COMBINATION OF JUST ENOUGH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND PERHAPS SOME NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM
PRE-DAWN THROUGH THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO AFTER DAYBREAK EACH DAY.
WITH THE AREA STILL UNDERNEATH THE RESIDUAL 500 MB WEAKNESS BEHIND
THE STRONGER TROUGH THAT PRODUCED THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY EVENING, CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED LATE
MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS, JUMPING FROM THE COAST
INLAND (ENDING ALONG THE COAST/BAY) ON SATURDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS
QUIET DOWN BEFORE SUNSET. VIRTUALLY NO POTENTIAL FOR A THURSDAY
EVENING REPEAT...THOUGH STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE GUSTS OF 40
MPH AND A QUICK 1 INCH OF RAIN.
DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE SITTING AT OR JUST A HAIR ABOVE
AVERAGE (AVERAGES RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S EAST OF IH-69C
TO 99-102 WEST), BUT ENOUGH MIXING OF DRY POCKETS ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP HEAT INDEX IN CHECK, BETWEEN 105-110 ACROSS THE BOARD EXCEPT
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND 2-3 PM IN SOUTHWEST HIDALGO/SOUTHEAST
STARR.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
THE 500 MB RIDGE WE CALL "LA CANICULA" (DOG DAYS OF SUMMER, WHICH
OCCUR ON THE CALENDAR BETWEEN JULY 3 AND AUGUST 11) WILL BE IN
POSITION (SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH COAHUILA/CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO) BUT ITS *ORIENTATION* WILL NOT BE. RATHER THAN EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF, IT WILL BE
ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TOWARD CHIHUAHUA AND OUT TO SINALOA/SONORA THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
STRETCHING EAST AND WEST (TO THE NORTH OF SOUTH TEXAS/NORTHEAST
MEXICO) LATER NEXT WEEK.
INITIALLY, THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE RESIDUE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEAKNESS/TROUGH, WITH EMBEDDED SHEAR AXES/WEAK VORTICITY CENTERS
SUFFICIENT TO ACTIVATE JUST ENOUGH MEAN MOISTURE TO TRIGGER
DIURNALLY-FAVORED CONVECTION NEAR/ON THE COAST DURING THE PRE-DAWN
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, JUMPING INLAND BY LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES BASED ON 1000-500 MB THICKNESS
REMAIN SEASONABLE, WITH NO PRONOUNCED HOT-AIR ADVECTION ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW. BOTTOM LINE? MORE TYPICAL (1991-2020 MID JUNE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AND PERHAPS
INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEN THINGS MIGHT GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING. LONG-RANGE MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE FIRST SIGNS OF
SUMMER'S DEEPER EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, WITH VARYING
SOLUTIONS ON HOW EITHER A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES (TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHS, OR TUTTS) OR EVEN SOMETHING MORE ORGANIZED
SLIDES UNDERNEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. THE DETAILS WILL BE
IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT POTENTIAL IS
INCREASING FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT, EFFICIENT TROPICAL-TYPE RAINS FOR
THE LOWER VALLEY, PERHAPS INTO KENEDY, SPREADING INTO AREAS
ALONG/EAST OF IH-69C. THE EARLIEST ARRIVAL OF THESE RAINS COULD BE
LATE WEDNESDAY, BUT MOST LIKELY FAVORS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HOW MUCH RAIN REMAINS UNCERTAINTY, BUT BEING READY FOR MORE THAN
3" IN POCKETS OF THE LOWER/MID VALLEY IS SOMETHING TO BE THINKING
ABOUT. IN SHORT, THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WOULD BE A GOOD
TIME FOR CLEARING OUT ANY CLOGGED DRAINAGE (CANALS, CULVERTS,
DITCHES, ETC) AND HAVING A PLAN TO STAY OUT OF ANY FLOOD WATERS
SHOULD THE SITUATION UNFOLD THIS WAY. WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE PROLONGED RAIN, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
(AT LEAST) WOULD FALL A BIT BELOW AVERAGE, AT LEAST ALONG/EAST OF
IH-69C. MUCH MORE TO FOLLOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
A NON-DESCRIPT LATE SPRING SITUATION CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY. WHILE WE HAVEN'T QUITE YET REACHED THE AZURE BLUE, FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE PATTERN, WE'RE IN BETTER
SHAPE REGARDING FORECASTABLE SHOWERS/STORMS, AT LEAST THROUGH
NOON-1 PM SATURDAY.
SO...THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY-MID EVENING
WINDS, AND PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM LATE NIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING. BOTH OF THESE CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, WITH
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH JUST AFTER SUNSET (LONGEST AT
MCALLEN, WHERE ENHANCED SEA BREEZE ARRIVES THERE LAST) THEN
PICKING UP TO A FRESH LEVEL BY MID MORNING SATURDAY. AS FOR
CEILINGS? EXPECT PERIODIC MVFR TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 14/15Z (9 OR 10 AM) BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR BUT
POTENTIALLY REMAINING BROKEN UNTIL JUST BEFORE NOON.
COULD SEE A SHOWER OR EVEN A SMALL THUNDERSTORM AROUND THE
BROWNSVILLE/HARLIGEN TERMINALS BY NOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW,
EVEN FOR INTRODUCING A VCTS REMARK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE SEAS WITH NUISANCE WIND WAVES
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OR SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING...ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE
GULF BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AND A BIT STRONGER OVER LAGUNA
MADRE AT THE SAME TIME, FLIPPING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ISOLATED LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WITH LITTLE
COVERAGE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS ANY CONVECTION
REDEVELOPS INLAND.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: AFOREMENTIONED TRENDS CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS GENERALLY EAST-
SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KNOTS MUCH OF THE TIME AND SEAS SITTING IN THE
LOW END OF MODERATE (3-4 FEET) WITH SOME LESSENING OF WIND WAVES.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE DIURNAL TIMES FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
DURING THIS PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WE'LL BE WATCHING FOR POTENTIALLY MORE BANDED AND PERSISTENT
RAINFALL ACROSS THE GULF, EDGING INTO LAGUNA MADRE. WITH NO
DEFINED SYSTEM, SLIGHTLY INCREASING GRADIENT MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE
WINDS AND BUILD SEAS AS WELL.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
MENTIONED ABOVE IS THE 1991-2020 AVERAGE TEMPERATURE COMPARISONS.
WE SAY THIS SINCE YOU MIGHT BE WONDERING JUST HOW HOT THIS JUNE
HAS BEEN SO FAR IN HISTORY. PERIODS OF RECORD EXTEND WELL BEFORE
THIS 30-YEAR WINDOW, AND THE LAST TEN YEARS OF IT (2011-2020) WAS
THE HOTTEST DECADE IN THE PERIODS-OF-RECORD, WHICH EXTEND BACK
OVER 100 YEARS IN SOME CASES. SO, WHERE DO WE RANK? PRELIMINARILY,
THROUGH JUNE 12TH, SOME NUMBERS (DAY/NIGHT COMBINED). NOTHING CLOSE
TO THE 2024 RECORDS FOR MANY, BUT STILL IMPRESSIVE.
LOCATION (SINCE YEAR) RANK (DEGREES F) RECORD (YEAR)
BROWNSVILLE(1878) 4TH (87.2) 89.7 (2024)
MCALLEN (1941) 3RD (89.5) 91 (2018)
HARLINGEN (1912) 6TH (86.5) 87.4 (2019)*
PORT MANSFIELD (1958) 8TH (83.4) 86.2 (2024)
WESLACO (1914) 6TH (86.5) 89.1 (2024)
RGC (1928)** 2ND (90.6) 91 (2024)
*MISSING DATA FROM 2024, WHICH WOULD BE NUMBER 1 OTHERWISE
**RECORDS BEGAN IN 1897, BUT CONTINUOUS RECORDS BEGAN IN 1928.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 95 81 94 / 20 20 10 40
HARLINGEN 78 96 78 95 / 10 20 10 30
MCALLEN 80 100 80 99 / 10 20 10 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 79 98 79 98 / 10 10 10 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 88 82 88 / 20 20 20 40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 93 80 92 / 20 20 10 40
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
AVIATION UPDATE...52-GOLDSMITH
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