608
FXUS64 KBRO 142345 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
645 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
OVERALL BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEKEND. CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, PLENTIFUL DAYTIME
HEATING, AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN THE ABSENCE OF DEEPER
ATMOSPHERIC FORCING WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT UPTICK IN STREAMER AND
GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS ON SUNDAY, HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO STAY DRY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
NORTH. THAT BEING SAID, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE INLAND AREA OR AN OUTFLOW DRIVEN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, AS WE SAW ON THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS
REMAINS AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE) GIVEN
THAT A 590+ DM RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
OTHERWISE, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 103-109. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
AFTER A RELATIVELY BENIGN START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK, THE WEATHER
PATTERN GETS INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED TOWARDS MID WEEK AS MID TO LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING
NORTHWARDS INTO THE GULF OF AMERICA FROM THE CARRIBEAN. AS TYPICAL
WITH LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE, THE AVERAGE MODEL ERROR BEYOND THREE
DAYS OR 72 HOURS IS OVER 150 MILES. NAEFS SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE PWATS AND INTEGRATED WATER
VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) INCREASE TO 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. UNSURPRISINGLY, CPC 6-10 DAY
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK SHOWS A 70-80 PERCENT CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. TO BE CLEAR, THE NHC IS NOT EXPECTING TROPICAL
CYCLONE ACTIVITY ANYWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN, INCLUDING THE GULF
OF AMERICA, IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY (RGV) COULD SEE INCREASING CHANCES
(50 TO 60 PERCENT) OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BY THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER, HEAT RISK CONCERNS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DECREASE. IN FACT,
THE CPC 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS SUGGESTING NEAR TO EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (33-40 PERCENT CONFIDENCE) FOR
OUR REGION. FOR REFERENCE, NORMAL HIGHS FOR MID JUNE IN DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, EXCEPT UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 FOR SPI.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
SAME CONDITIONS...DIFFERENT DAY. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN STEADY-
STATE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY, WITH WEAKNESS ALOFT NOT SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE NECESSARY LIFT FOR MENTIONABLE RAIN EARLY SUNDAY NEAR
THE COAST AND BY AFTERNOON FARTHER INLAND. THEREFORE...WHAT YOU'VE
SEEN IS WHAT YOU'LL GET: LATE NIGHT DEVELOPMENT OF TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS...PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PREVAILING AT MCALLEN. CEILING
HEIGHT MAY SNEAK DOWN TOWARD HIGH IFR AT MCALLEN AS WE'VE SEEN IN
PAST PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT
THE FLOOR JUST ABOVE THIS AS IFR CONDITIONS ONLY LAST MOMENTS THIS
MORNING.
THEREAFTER, CEILINGS LIFT TO FEW-SCATTERED VFR AT ALL TERMINALS,
WITH THE USUAL HIGHER LEVELS FARTHER INLAND WHERE MIXING HEIGHTS
ARE NORMALLY HIGHER (3500 VS. 6000). SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WILL PICK UP TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING, WITH SEA BREEZE ENHANCMENT MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST WITH
HIGHEST SUSTAINED/GUSTS REACHING MCALLEN BY 5-7 PM.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS (LESS THAN
10 PERCENT COVERAGE) OVER THE GULF WATERS. WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH 10-
30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
INCREASING TO 30-50 PERCENT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE REACHED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 94 80 93 / 30 30 30 40
HARLINGEN 79 96 77 95 / 10 30 20 30
MCALLEN 81 100 80 99 / 10 20 10 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 79 98 78 97 / 10 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 88 81 88 / 20 30 30 40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 93 79 92 / 20 30 30 40
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
AVIATION UPDATE...52-GOLDSMITH
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