152
FXUS64 KBRO 051746
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1246 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SLOW SOUTHERN TRANSIT OF THE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN CENTRAL TX WILL MAINTAIN LOW (<20%) OF SHOWERS
TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND ALONG THE MID-UPPER RGV THIS WEEKEND.
THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY
SOUTH AND PROVIDE A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, LESSENING OVERNIGHT, BEFORE
BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHANCE SUNDAY. THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING
SHOWS A DRY NOSE IN MID-LEVELS (~40% RH) AND PWAT OF 1.60" - A
TYPICAL VALUE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GOES-19 SATELLITE DERIVED
PWATS INDICATE MOISTER AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH
THE CWA, WITH PWATS AROUND 2" (~90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY).
WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
RGV AND COAST WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING
TONIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON, GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWARD TREK.
BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S WON'T
KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURES AT BAY - "FEELS LIKE" IN THE UPPER 90S
TO MID 100S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. CONTINUE TO PRACTICE
HEAT SAFETY. LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AT LOCAL BEACHES INTO TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
BROAD RIDGING OVER THE GULF TAKES OVER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST CLOSER TO THE TX COAST
THROUGH THE WEEK, INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITING CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR THE MID TO END OF WEEK. INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RISE (FROM LOW 90S TO MID-UPPER 90S), WITH MINOR TO
MODERATE (LEVELS 1 AND 2 OF 4) RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS EXPECTED
EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND. APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIPLE
DIGITS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UP TO 100-110 BY LATE WEEK. LOWS REMAIN
CONSISTENTLY AVERAGE IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
PRIMARILY VFR FOR ALL SITES THIS CYCLE. A BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MCC IN CENTRAL TX IS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A CHANCE TO BRING TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS TO BRO AND HRL AS
NOTED IN TEMPO. MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS AT ALL SITES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT, MODERATE WINDS CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 05-15Z; THIS UNCERTAINTY IS
DENOTED WITH FEW LOW CLOUDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL TX KEEP AFTERNOON CONDITIONS
BORDERLINE SCEC THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (<20%) FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EVERY MORNING/AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDWEEK BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
GUSTY WINDS TODAY EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO MODERATE OUT OF THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, BECOMING GENTLE BY MIDWEEK. WAVE HEIGHTS
PRIMARILY 2-3 FT ARE EXPECTED FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 89 78 91 77 / 10 0 10 0
HARLINGEN 90 76 92 75 / 10 0 10 0
MCALLEN 92 78 93 78 / 10 0 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 93 77 91 75 / 20 10 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 79 86 79 / 10 0 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 77 89 77 / 10 0 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK
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