726  
FXUS64 KBRO 052315  
AFDBRO  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX  
615 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
SLOW SOUTHERN TRANSIT OF THE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN CENTRAL TX WILL MAINTAIN LOW (<20%) OF SHOWERS  
TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND ALONG THE MID-UPPER RGV THIS WEEKEND.  
THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY  
SOUTH AND PROVIDE A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
RANCHLANDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, LESSENING OVERNIGHT, BEFORE  
BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHANCE SUNDAY. THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING  
SHOWS A DRY NOSE IN MID-LEVELS (~40% RH) AND PWAT OF 1.60" - A  
TYPICAL VALUE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GOES-19 SATELLITE DERIVED  
PWATS INDICATE MOISTER AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH  
THE CWA, WITH PWATS AROUND 2" (~90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY).  
WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE  
RGV AND COAST WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING  
TONIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON, GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS THE  
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWARD TREK.  
 
BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S WON'T  
KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURES AT BAY - "FEELS LIKE" IN THE UPPER 90S  
TO MID 100S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. CONTINUE TO PRACTICE  
HEAT SAFETY. LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  
 
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS  
AT LOCAL BEACHES INTO TONIGHT.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
BROAD RIDGING OVER THE GULF TAKES OVER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING  
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST CLOSER TO THE TX COAST  
THROUGH THE WEEK, INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITING CHANCE OF RAIN  
FOR THE MID TO END OF WEEK. INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH  
TEMPERATURES TO RISE (FROM LOW 90S TO MID-UPPER 90S), WITH MINOR TO  
MODERATE (LEVELS 1 AND 2 OF 4) RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS EXPECTED  
EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND. APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIPLE  
DIGITS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UP TO 100-110 BY LATE WEEK. LOWS REMAIN  
CONSISTENTLY AVERAGE IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO RESULT IN ENHANCED  
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30  
KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET, BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT TO  
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS. MVFR CEILINGS AT KBRO ARE  
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHILE VFR  
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KHRL AND KMFE, THOUGH TEMPO'S HAVE BEEN  
INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MEDIUM (30-50%) CHANCE OF MVFR  
CEILINGS DEVELOPING, POSSIBLY BY 10Z. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE TO  
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY  
WINDS PICKING BACK UP TO SIMILAR SPEEDS TODAY, THOUGH POSSIBLY A  
FEW KNOTS LIGHTER.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED  
WITH A LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL TX KEEP AFTERNOON CONDITIONS  
BORDERLINE SCEC THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (<20%) FOR  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EVERY MORNING/AFTERNOON THROUGH  
MIDWEEK BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.  
GUSTY WINDS TODAY EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO MODERATE OUT OF THE  
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, BECOMING GENTLE BY MIDWEEK. WAVE HEIGHTS  
PRIMARILY 2-3 FT ARE EXPECTED FOLLOWING HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
BROWNSVILLE 78 91 77 91 / 0 10 0 20  
HARLINGEN 76 92 75 92 / 0 10 0 20  
MCALLEN 78 93 78 94 / 0 10 0 20  
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 91 75 94 / 10 10 0 10  
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 86 79 86 / 0 10 0 20  
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 89 77 90 / 0 10 0 20  
 
 
   
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...69-HK  
LONG TERM....69-HK  
AVIATION...65-IRISH  
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