974
FXUS64 KBRO 060344
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1044 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES INTO THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD, FEATURING A SLIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SLOWLY
DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND A HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF, RESULTING IN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, BREEZY AT
TIMES, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH ON SUNDAY AND 20-25 MPH ON MONDAY
EXPECTED. THERE REMAINS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON MONDAY AS A
WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF DECREASES
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ADVECT HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CWA FROM A WEAK DISTURBANCE
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE HIGHEST CHANCES REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF US-
281. HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS, WITH
LOW TO MID 90S INLAND AND MID 80S ALONG THE COASTLINE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 70S LIKELY. A MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF INLAND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS WHILE SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND THE MORE POPULATED AREAS OF
THE RGV EXPERIENCE A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT DECREASES TO A LOW RISK ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
THE MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-30%)
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING,
RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT INCREASE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, CAUSING POP'S TO DECREASE FROM A LOW (20%) CHANCE ON
WEDNESDAY TO LESS THAN A 10% FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND. INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR
UPSTREAM IS EXPECTED TO LOWER PWAT'S BELOW 1.7 INCHES, WHICH IS
NEAR AVERAGE, THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, RESULTING IN MORE SUN AND
AN INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES, WITH MOST AREAS PEAKING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90'S, POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 100 DEGREES IN THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS, WHILE MID-80'S CONTINUE AT THE COAST AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS FALL TO THE 70S INLAND TO NEAR 80 DEGREES AT THE COAST.
MODERATE HEAT RISKS CONTINUE FOR THE POPULATED REGIONS OF THE RGV
(MINOR ELSEWHERE), EXPANDING TO THE MAJORITY OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO RESULT IN ENHANCED
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30
KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET, BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT TO
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS. MVFR CEILINGS AT KBRO ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KHRL AND KMFE, THOUGH TEMPO'S HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MEDIUM (30-50%) CHANCE OF MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING, POSSIBLY BY 10Z. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS PICKING BACK UP TO SIMILAR SPEEDS TODAY, THOUGH POSSIBLY A
FEW KNOTS LIGHTER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
NOW THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...A TIGHTENS PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF, WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MOSTLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH MONDAY, WITH GRADUAL
LOOSENING OF THE GRADIENT EXPECTED. SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURN BY TUESDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO
MODERATE (2-3 FEET) SEAS CONTINUING. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
(20-40%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 78 91 77 91 / 0 10 0 20
HARLINGEN 76 92 75 92 / 0 10 0 20
MCALLEN 78 93 78 94 / 0 10 0 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 91 75 94 / 10 10 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 86 79 86 / 0 10 0 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 89 77 90 / 0 10 0 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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