621
FXUS64 KBRO 071735
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1235 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-40%) TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
- MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4) TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. REMEMBER TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY TO
PREVENT HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
- A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST WILL LIKELY ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE WEEK,
WHICH MAY RESULT IN HAZY SKIES AND REDUCTIONS IN AIR QUALITY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
LOW TO MEDIUM PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-40%) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS AN INVERTED TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY.
ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP EACH MORNING, WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED,
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AROUND 40 MPH AND
LIGHTNING. ADDITIONALLY, ROBUST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.8-1.9 INCHES
ALONG AND EAST OF US-281. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY JULY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE TRIPLE
DIGITS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD COME TO AN END AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY,
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW (10% OR LESS) AT THIS TIME. THE HEAT WILL
BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM UP
WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND HUMIDITY REMAINS ELEVATED AS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ADVECTS GULF MOISTURE
TOWARD DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY TO MID JULY ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES. IN COMBINATION WITH THE HUMIDITY, HEAT INDEX VALUES EACH
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 100-110 DEGREES. FOR ANYONE SPENDING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OUTDOORS, REMEMBER TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY TO
PREVENT HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE
INDICATIONS AMONG GUIDANCE OF A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST REACHING
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY MID TO LATE WEEK, WHICH MAY RESULT IN HAZY
SKIES AND SOME REDUCTIONS IN AIR QUALITY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH ANY ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE (20-40%) OF MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 06-07Z. ADJUSTMENTS ON THE
TIMING AND DURATION MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING
BELOW 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN BY MID TO
LATE MORNING TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS.
THERE MAY BE BRIEF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO A LOCALLY ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS. OTHERWISE, THERE
ARE LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-40%) THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 92 78 92 / 10 30 10 30
HARLINGEN 76 94 75 94 / 10 30 10 30
MCALLEN 79 96 78 96 / 0 30 0 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 76 95 76 95 / 0 20 0 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 87 79 87 / 20 20 10 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 91 77 91 / 10 30 10 30
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...22-GARCIA
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