053
FXUS64 KBRO 092314 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
614 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 612 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
- SAHARAN DUST WILL LEAD TO HAZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TODAY (20-30%) BECOMING MORE SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN EAST OF US-281. PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2 INCHES
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, SO ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS COULD
LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF DRYING OUT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THOUGH SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT REMAINS UNDER A 15%
CHANCE. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THE FORECAST IS
TRENDING TO WETTER AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE GREATEST ON SATURDAY WITH A 20-30% CHANCE AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA INTO NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO. BY MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST IS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BRO CWA AS OF THIS
DISCUSSION AND WHILE WE ARE SEEING SOME HAZE NOW, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZIER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-110 DEGREES. HEAT RISK
WILL REMAIN MINOR TO MODERATE ACROSS MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO NEXT WEEK. IF SPENDING A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF TIME OUTDOORS, REMEMBER TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY TO PREVENT HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND RETURN BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. SAHARAN DUST HAS BEGUN MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO HAZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT CAUTION AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS, ESPECIALLY ON
THE LAGUNA MADRE, THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 77 91 79 91 / 20 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 75 94 76 94 / 10 10 0 10
MCALLEN 77 95 79 96 / 0 10 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 94 75 96 / 10 10 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 86 80 87 / 20 10 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 90 77 91 / 10 10 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...68-MCGINNIS
LONG TERM....68-MCGINNIS
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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