381  
FXUS64 KBRO 161701  
AFDBRO  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX  
1201 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2025  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025  
 
A DRY PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE GENERALLY IN PLACE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A LOW  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IS BEING MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL  
HURRICANE CENTER WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT  
IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO 7 DAYS. WITH THIS ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF  
THE CWA, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHT BUMP TO  
RATHER SEASONAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS  
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
AT THIS TIME, CONDITIONS ALONG THE BEACHES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE  
INTO THURSDAY, WITH A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY  
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF MAY INCREASE SWELL  
OR SWELL PERIOD AND PUSH AN ELEVATED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TO  
START THE WEEKEND. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS RETURNS  
SATURDAY AND PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH  
GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. AT  
THIS TIME, EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ANY AIRPORT WEATHER  
WARNING CRITERIA, BUT AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 34 KTS IS POSSIBLE  
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025  
 
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE  
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE  
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING A LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
GULF THAT MAY INCREASE SWELL LOCALLY LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS  
WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EACH  
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BAY WITH GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BROWNSVILLE 77 93 77 94 / 0 0 0 10  
HARLINGEN 75 96 74 96 / 0 0 0 10  
MCALLEN 77 99 77 99 / 0 0 0 10  
RIO GRANDE CITY 74 99 74 99 / 0 0 0 0  
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 86 79 87 / 0 0 0 0  
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 91 77 91 / 0 0 0 10  
 

 
   
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN  
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN  
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN  
 
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