813
FXUS64 KBRO 210342 CCA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1042 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY LOW (LESS THAN 10%)
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT PERSIST, WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AVERAGE (MID-TO UPPER 90S) CLOSER TO THE
COAST TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FURTHER INLAND (LOWER 100'S ALONG
AND WEST OF US-281). CLOUDS AND MOISTURE BUILD FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES WESTWARD TOWARDS THE LOWER
TEXAS GULF COASTLINE, RESULTING IN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA INTO NEXT MONDAY IN ADDITION TO A POSSIBLE SLIGHT
INCREASE IN PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG AND EAST OF US-281. THIS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR THE EXTENT OF
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 100'S TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND LIMITED TO THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80'S AT THE COAST AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS A SLIGHT (LEVEL 1/4) TO MODERATE
(LEVEL 2/4) HEAT RISK AS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES RANGE AROUND
105-110 DEGREES F, BECOMING MOSTLY MODERATE LATER IN THE WEEK AS
MOISTURE INCREASES. YET, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AND
RESULTING POP'S AND TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOWER TO MID
LEVEL SURFACE LOW, OR LACK THEREOF.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TONIGHT, BECOMING A LOW RISK BY MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS (AROUND 15-20 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 25-30
KNOTS) ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING BEYOND SUNSET DOWN TO ABOUT 10-15 KNOTS SUSTAINED
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS MAY PERSIST AT KMFE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES ALONG WITH
A MODERATE (30-40%) CHANCE FOR BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURN THROUGHOUT MONDAY MORNING TO
SIMILAR SPEEDS AS TODAY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-4 FEET) SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CONDITIONS AND HEADLINES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LAGUNA MADRE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH
TUESDAY, RESULTING FROM A LOCALLY ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND INTO THE
REST OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (UP TO A 30%
CHANCE) LIKELY OVER THE OFFSHORE (20-40 NM) GULF WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 78 94 79 94 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 76 97 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 79 100 79 100 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 102 77 101 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 88 80 88 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 94 78 93 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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