684
FXUS64 KBRO 211137 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
637 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY LOW (LESS THAN 10%)
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT PERSIST, WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AVERAGE (MID-TO UPPER 90S) CLOSER TO THE
COAST TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FURTHER INLAND (LOWER 100'S ALONG
AND WEST OF US-281). CLOUDS AND MOISTURE BUILD FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES WESTWARD TOWARDS THE LOWER
TEXAS GULF COASTLINE, RESULTING IN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA INTO NEXT MONDAY IN ADDITION TO A POSSIBLE SLIGHT
INCREASE IN PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG AND EAST OF US-281. THIS MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR THE EXTENT OF
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 100'S TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND LIMITED TO THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80'S AT THE COAST AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS A SLIGHT (LEVEL 1/4) TO MODERATE
(LEVEL 2/4) HEAT RISK AS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES RANGE AROUND
105-110 DEGREES F, BECOMING MOSTLY MODERATE LATER IN THE WEEK AS
MOISTURE INCREASES. YET, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AND
RESULTING POP'S AND TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOWER TO MID
LEVEL SURFACE LOW, OR LACK THEREOF.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TONIGHT, BECOMING A LOW RISK BY MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE CYCLE. MVFR CEILINGS OVER MFE THIS
MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BURN OFF FOLLOWING SUNRISE, HENCE TEMPO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (<20%) OF MVFR CIGS AT HRL AND BRO BRIEFLY
PRIOR TO 15Z. MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS
RETURN LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-4 FEET) SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CONDITIONS AND HEADLINES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LAGUNA MADRE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH
TUESDAY, RESULTING FROM A LOCALLY ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY
AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND INTO THE
REST OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (UP TO A 30%
CHANCE) LIKELY OVER THE OFFSHORE (20-40 NM) GULF WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 94 79 94 79 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 97 76 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 99 80 100 79 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 101 77 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 80 88 79 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 78 93 78 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...69-HEK
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