588
FXUS64 KBRO 211721
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1221 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LITTLE-TO-NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
OVERALL SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HUMIDITY TO THE REGION, SUPPORTING A CONTINUAL MODERATE HEAT RISK
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE BETWEEN
THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S, WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES BEING
OBSERVED IN THE WESTERN RANCHLANDS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. RIP CURRENT
RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AT LOCAL
AREA BEACHES.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MID-LEVEL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE FROM A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TREK FUTHER NORTH AND IMPACT THE UPPER TEXAS COAST INSTEAD.
BECAUSE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN AGREEMENT, FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, IF THIS MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DOES
MOVE CLOSER TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST, OUR AREA COULD SEE INCREASED
CHANCES (10-20%) FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THESE LOW
RAIN CHANCES DO MATERIALIZE, AREAS THAT WOULD MOST LIKELY RECEIVE
PRECIPITATION ARE AREAS EAST OF I-69E AND THE GULF WATERS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD START TO DECREASE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIR TO MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH
BRIEF OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHERE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2-3 FEET, AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 94 79 94 79 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 97 76 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 99 80 100 79 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 101 77 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 80 88 79 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 78 93 78 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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