935
FXUS64 KBRO 212233
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
533 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LITTLE-TO-NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
OVERALL SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HUMIDITY TO THE REGION, SUPPORTING A CONTINUAL MODERATE HEAT RISK
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE BETWEEN
THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S, WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES BEING
OBSERVED IN THE WESTERN RANCHLANDS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. RIP CURRENT
RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AT LOCAL
AREA BEACHES.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MID-LEVEL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE FROM A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TREK FUTHER NORTH AND IMPACT THE UPPER TEXAS COAST INSTEAD.
BECAUSE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN AGREEMENT, FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, IF THIS MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DOES
MOVE CLOSER TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST, OUR AREA COULD SEE INCREASED
CHANCES (10-20%) FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THESE LOW
RAIN CHANCES DO MATERIALIZE, AREAS THAT WOULD MOST LIKELY RECEIVE
PRECIPITATION ARE AREAS EAST OF I-69E AND THE GULF WATERS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD START TO DECREASE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY....VFR CONDITIONS WILL BY AND LARGE PREVAIL
THROUGH THE ENTIRE 00Z TAF CYCLE AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CLOUDS
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS,
PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIR TO MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH
BRIEF OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHERE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2-3 FEET, AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 95 79 95 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 77 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 80 100 79 101 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 102 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 87 80 88 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 93 77 93 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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