631
FXUS64 KBRO 221730
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, RESULTING IN RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED DEW POINTS,
AND IN COMBINATION WITH TEMPERATURES, WILL RESULT IN TRIPLE-DIGIT
HEAT INDEX VALUE RANGING FROM 100-110 DEGREES. A LOCALLY ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
INCREASE EACH DAY FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY EVENING, WITH WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AN INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST AS A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH TRANSLATES WEST. AT THIS TIME, THERE
ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
ON THE WHERE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT WILL RESIDE AND TRACK OF
THE MID LEVEL FEATURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN LOW (10-30%) FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF US-281, WHICH IS WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE CONTENT IS
EXPECTED TO RESIDE. SHOULD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE
UPWARDS OF 2.0 INCHES, ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE,
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS BEACHES, A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
HOWEVER, PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, WHICH MAY RESULT IN INTERMITTENT
PERIODS OF MVFR. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE
TAF AT THIS TIME, BUT SUBSEQUENT TAFS MAY OPT TO INCLUDE A TEMPO
OR PREVAIL IF THE POTENTIAL INCREASES. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON, FALLING BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, AND INCREASING
ONCE AGAIN BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN GENERALLY
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS, DUE TO A LOCALLY
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-30%)
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 94 78 95 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 77 98 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 79 101 78 102 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 76 102 75 102 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 88 79 88 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 93 78 93 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...22-GARCIA
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