988
FXUS64 KBRO 230325
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1025 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1016 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
* HOT, HUMID, MAINLY RAIN-FREE, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK WITH
MAINLY MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK IN PLACE.
* TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY HOTTER THAN NORMAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
* LOW, BUT NON-ZERO PROBABILITY OF INCREASED DIURNAL CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY;
GREATEST CONFIDENCE NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE GULF WATERS.
* GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LOW TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS. RIP CURRENT RISK WILL RANGE BETWEEN LOW
TO MODERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OR THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1016 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
HOT, HUMID, MOSTLY RAIN-FREE, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OR FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, FORECAST MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A 591-594 DAM SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
HEAT RIDGE OVERHEAD. CLOSER TO THE SFC, THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
1015-1020 HPA SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE FROM THESE KEY WEATHER
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED HOT, HUMID, AND RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
BETWEEN THE MID 70S OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO NEAR 80F DEGREES
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS BEING LOCATED ALONG AND WEST OF IH-69C. HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL RESULT IN MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
HEAT RISK EACH DAY (WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY) WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105-112F DEGREES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MODERATE TO BREEZY AT
TIMES OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY, COURTESY OF AN ENHANCED
THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHEAST
U.S. RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BEFORE SHIFTING WESTWARD, STRENGTHENING,
AND ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD (FROM
SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK), FORECAST
MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE DEPICTING A MID-SUMMER 500 MB PATTERN FEATURING
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 595-600 DAM HEAT RIDGE (SOME 2-3 STDEVS ABOVE
NORMAL) CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH WILL
EFFECTIVELY RESULT IN A MAJOR HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S.
CLOSER TO HOME ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY,
THE AREA WILL REST UNDERNEATH THIS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HEAT RIDGE,
RESULTING IN AN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT REGIME. WHILE THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HOTTER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, FORECAST MODELS ARE SIGNALING A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARBY, PARTICULARLY IN THE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS NEBULOUS FEATURE COUPLED WITH AN EASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT REGIME COULD TRIGGER SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IF
REALIZED, THIS ULTIMATELY COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES (CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS) FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AFTERWARDS (SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK), TEMPERATURES COULD
TREND TOWARDS SLIGHTLY HOTTER THAN NORMAL LEVELS. WEDNESDAY COULD
SEE A SLIGHT LET UP IN TEMPERATURES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAT RIDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. OVERALL, THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN STATUS
QUO THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THAT IS HOT, HUMID,
MAINLY RAIN-FREE, AND AT TIMES BREEZY WITH MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
HEAT RISK CONTINUING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY....FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BY AND LARGE BE VFR
THROUGH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED
OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A FEW MVFR CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS,
PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1016 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS. A LOCALLY ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ALONG THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
NEARSHORE GULF WATERS EACH AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCES (20-30%
PROBABILITY) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON FRIDAY AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW TO
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR AREA BEACHES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD OR THROUGH THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 94 78 95 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 77 98 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 79 101 78 102 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 76 102 75 102 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 88 79 88 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 93 78 93 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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