586
FXUS64 KBRO 072319 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
619 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 613 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
- DAILY LOW (20-30%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF US-281/I-69C EACH AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND POCKETS OF
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR EARLY
AUGUST, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 100 TO 110 DEGREES
EACH AFTERNOON.
- MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK CONTINUES FOR MOST OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ELEVATED HUMIDITY,
AND LOW (AROUND 20-30% OR LESS) RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, PLACING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITHIN
THE SOUTHEASTER PERIPHERY OF RIDGING ALOFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
GENERALLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A WEAKNESS
ALOFT APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF US-281 THROUGH FRIDAY, AND
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE MAY BE A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATES TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST. THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT, HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT VIA
WELL ESTABLISHED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE ALONG AND EAST OF I-69E, AND MAY
RESULT IN POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITHIN ROBUST SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THIS FEATURE EXITS THE AREA, ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE WEEK NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
INFLUENCED BY THE SEA BREEZE.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 100
TO 110 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. A MODERATE HEAT RISK CONTINUES
THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH
THE 00Z CYCLE AT ALL SITES. LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 09Z-12Z WITH FOG REDUCING
VISIBILITY. BREEZY WINDS PICK UP LATE MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, WHICH MAY
TEMPORARILY REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR IF A SHOWER PASSES OVER A
SITE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-30%) WILL EXIST EACH
DAY OVER THE GULF WATERS. EXPECT LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 96 80 97 79 / 10 0 20 10
HARLINGEN 99 75 98 74 / 10 0 10 10
MCALLEN 102 80 102 79 / 10 0 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 103 78 103 77 / 10 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 89 80 / 10 0 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 94 78 94 77 / 10 0 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...69-HK
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