272
FXUS64 KBRO 102339 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
639 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
- DAILY LOW (20-30%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF US-281/I-69C EACH AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID AUGUST, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 100-110
DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.
- MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, WITH A FEW AREAS REACHING MAJOR (LEVEL
3 OF 4) HEAT RISK HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH DAILY LOW
(20-30%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEASTERN US,
RESPECTIVELY. MEANWHILE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE FROM THE MID/UPPER TEXAS COAST FURTHER
INLAND. SUBTLE WEAKNESS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE,
DIURNAL INSTABILITY, AND WEAK FORCING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY. IT IS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT WHICH AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE TO AROUND 20% OR LESS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THE WEEKEND AS CENTER OF MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US SHIFTS WESTWARD.
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. IN COMBINATION
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO TRIPLE-DIGITS FURTHER INLAND, HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 110 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY BEGIN TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
(HEAT INDEX OF 111 DEGREES OR HIGHER) OVER THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS
OF THE ISSUANCE OF ANY HEAT PRODUCTS, THERE WILL BE A MINOR TO
MODERATE HEAT RISK THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, BEFORE INCREASING TO
A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY TO PREVENT HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES
AND ALWAYS LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ONGOING ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF MFE AS THE SEA BREEZE CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL AGAIN PICKUP OUT OF THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MONDAY. THE
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TAF SITES
MONDAY ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE
SEAS. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-30%) WILL EXIST EACH DAY OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND LAGUNA MADRE. EXPECT LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS
AND SEAS WITHIN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 95 79 96 79 / 20 10 10 0
HARLINGEN 97 75 98 75 / 20 10 20 0
MCALLEN 101 78 101 79 / 20 10 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 102 77 102 78 / 10 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 89 81 / 20 10 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 77 94 78 / 20 10 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...60-BE
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