978
FXUS64 KBRO 110317
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1017 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE THE
REGION, WHILE GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US AND EASTERN SEABOARD LOOKS TO SLOWLY SHIFT FURTHER
WEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
DAILY LOW (20-30%) RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT, DIURNAL INSTABILITY,
AND FORCING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE LIKELY SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND, INCREASE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LIKELY START TO SUPPRESS
SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
QUICKLY THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD, AND BY EXTENSION THE RAIN
CHANCES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE 6Z, 12Z, AND 18Z RUNS OF
THE GFS ALL DEPICT A WEAK LOW FORMING ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHICH COULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE IS LARGELY MISSING IN THE ECMWF RUNS, WITH THE
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING FURTHER INTO TEXAS BY THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK, LIKELY SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTION AND
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ON RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY SATURDAY WITH GREATER CONSISTENCE ON THE
WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE RIDGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ONGOING ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF MFE AS THE SEA BREEZE CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL AGAIN PICKUP OUT OF THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MONDAY. THE
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TAF SITES
MONDAY ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 1-2 FT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD, WITH A SLIGHT
UPTICK TO 3-4FT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS COULD APPROACH
15KTS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS,
POSSIBLY REQUIRING BRIEF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 96 79 96 / 10 10 0 20
HARLINGEN 75 98 75 98 / 10 20 0 20
MCALLEN 78 101 79 101 / 10 10 10 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 102 78 102 / 10 10 10 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 89 81 89 / 10 10 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 94 78 94 / 10 10 0 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...60
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