166
FXUS64 KBRO 130528 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1228 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH ONE AREA DRIFTING EASTWARD FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, AND ANOTHER AREA LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA. THIS
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS HOT AND MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH
LOWER HUMIDITIES IN THE WESTERN RANCHLANDS. CLOSER TO THE COAST,
CONDITIONS WILL FEEL MUCH MORE HUMID AS SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
PREVAIL, ALLOWING FOR INFLUXES OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOONS, WITH CHANCES EAST OF I-69C BEING
AROUND 20% OR LESS EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
IN ADDITION, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS CURRENTLY MONITORING A
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE/SOUTHWEST GULF BY THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF LOW PRESSURE/CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE
NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD BRING IMPACTS SUCH AS INCREASED RIP
CURRENTS AND SWELLS, AS WELL AS POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, TO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THIS WEEKEND. BY FRIDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE TO AROUND 40-50% (WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EAST OF
I-69C) AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB ABOVE TWO INCHES,
INDICATING A ROBUST TROPICAL AIRMASS. THESE CHANCES DROP BACK
DOWN TO 20-30% ON SATURDAY, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CONTINUES FOR BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
HEAT IS ALSO GOING TO BE A CONCERN THROUGHOUT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISKS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET UP INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO THE MID 100S, WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING AS HIGH AS 111
DEGREES EVERYDAY. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND/OR HEAT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED, AND WILL BE MONITORED DAILY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE CYCLE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
PICK UP LATE MORNING AT ALL SITES, GUSTING TO 25 KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, WHICH MAY
TEMPORARILY DEGRADE VIS/CIGS TO MVFR OR IFR AND BRING GUSTIER
CONDITIONS IF A POP-UP PASSES OVER AN AIRFIELD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS INTO THE GULF, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED SWELL
AND WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH COULD SLIGHTLY DETERIORATE MARINE
CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (30-50%) FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS WELL. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO FAVORABLE BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 98 80 96 80 / 20 0 10 10
HARLINGEN 99 76 99 76 / 20 0 10 0
MCALLEN 104 79 102 80 / 20 0 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 104 78 104 78 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 89 82 / 10 0 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 94 79 95 79 / 10 0 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...69-HEK
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