872
FXUS64 KBRO 141119 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
619 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S EAST OF I-69E TO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I- 69E CORRIDOR. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND ELEVATED HUMIDITY
WILL RESULT IN TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES ON THURSDAY.
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE,
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, AND IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF LATER TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WESTERN GULF COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS A LOW CHANCE (20%)
OF DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ANY TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT, THIS FEATURE WILL BRING AN SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RANGING FROM 2.2 TO 2.4 INCHES ALONG AND EAST OF US-281/I-69C BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE
GFS/NAM12 INDICATE A POCKET OF 2.5+ INCHES MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND
GULF WATERS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE SPREADING FURTHER INLAND DURING
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST NBM PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATES FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.1-0.5 INCHES.
GIVEN THE EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCING ENVIRONMENT, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL UPWARDS OF 1 INCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS MAY RESULT IN
MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES ALONG LOW-LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FEW DEGREES LOWER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER.
IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND
INCREASING SWELL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS BEACHES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
WESTERN GULF COAST.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY AS
MID-LEVEL BUILDS AND PROVIDES SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION. HOT
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN THROUGH LATE
WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL. WINDS INCREASE
LATER THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS, AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE NORTH OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND BRING AN INFLUX
OF MOISTURE FRIDAY, WHICH CARRIES THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT THE VERY TAIL END OF THE CYCLE (10Z
FRIDAY ONWARD). THIS MAY BRING HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR TO IFR
VSBY/CIGS TO SITES UNDER ANY SHOWERS, WHICH IS MORE LIKELY IN
COASTAL SITES (HRL, BRO), BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. SLIGHTLY ADVERSE
CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS, WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES (30-
50%) WILL ALSO BE INCREASING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS. MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS RETURN
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 97 80 93 81 / 10 20 60 30
HARLINGEN 100 76 94 77 / 10 10 60 30
MCALLEN 103 80 97 80 / 10 0 40 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 104 78 100 79 / 0 0 30 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 81 88 82 / 0 20 50 30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 95 79 91 80 / 10 10 50 30
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....63-KC
AVIATION...69-HK
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