691
FXUS64 KBRO 141801
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
101 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
THE BIGGEST STORY FOR THIS DISCUSSION IS THE INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE THAT WILL BE COMING INTO THE REGION FOR TOMORROW AND INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS THE SAME AREA THAT THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A 40% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE, WHICH AS BEEN DESIGNATED AS INVEST 98L. WHILE THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT, THE BIGGEST HAZARD WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE FLOODING RAIN THREAT. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT CURRENT POPS BASED ON THE NBM ARE AROUND 70% ALONG THE
COAST, WITH LOWER CHANCES FURTHER WEST, WITH THE UPPER VALLEY HAVING
LOW CHANCES OF RAIN (AROUND 30%). MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 2.2 TO 2.4 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST AND EAST OF US-281/I-69C LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ARE STILL EXPECTED. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
HAS EAST OF US-281/I-69C IN A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
HOWEVER, CAMERON AND HIDALGO COUNTIES ARE IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DUE TO CONCERNS OF URBAN FLOODING. THIS
WOULD INDICATE A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CURRENT NBM QPF SHOWS A VERY WIDE RANGE OF 0.1-
0.5 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE. HOWEVER GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN
THE ENVIRONMENT, RAINFALL OF UP TO AN INCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS
COULD RESULT IN MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES ALONG LOW-LYING OR
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WHILE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH
MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN THE 90S ON
FRIDAY, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RETURN UPPER 90S AND LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS.
THE HEAT RISK FOR EACH DAY IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE
(LEVEL 2 OF 4). THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT A HEAT ADVISORY MIGHT BE
NEEDED FOR KENEDY COUNTY ON SATURDAY AS THE HEAT INDICES DO RISE
ABOVE 111 FOR SEVERAL HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THIS THE HEAT INDICES TEND
TO STAY BELOW 110 AND BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH DAY.
HOWEVER, A SPS FOR HEAT INDICES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S WITH SOME PLACES
APPROACHING 80.
FINALLY, THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
MODERATE FOR FRIDAY AS INCREASING SWELL AND WAVES IMPACTS THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST DUE TO THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE THAT WAS MENTIONED BEFORE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
CYCLE AT ALL TAF SITES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE AS WELL, HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY
WINDS UP 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW, RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE RESULTING IN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AROUND FRIDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS. NHC CURRENTLY HAS THIS AREA WITH 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, GENERALLY FAVORABLE
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE
SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 91 81 96 / 20 70 20 10
HARLINGEN 76 93 78 98 / 10 70 20 20
MCALLEN 80 96 80 101 / 0 60 20 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 98 78 102 / 0 40 20 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 88 82 89 / 20 70 20 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 90 79 94 / 20 70 20 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...64-KATZ
LONG TERM....64-KATZ
AVIATION...64-KATZ
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