273
FXUS64 KBRO 151132 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
632 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE SURGE OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE HEADING TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF AMERICA. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE (50%) OF
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ANY TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT, THIS FEATURE WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RANGING FROM 2.2 TO 2.4 INCHES ALONG AND EAST OF US-281/I-69C BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. PWATS
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BROWNSVILLE RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE GULF
WATERS, MAINLY BEYOND 60NM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AND GULF
WATERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE SPREADING FURTHER INLAND DURING
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THERE REMAINS LARGE UNCERTAINTIES WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE NBM
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.1-0.5 INCHES, WHICH SEEMS BE RATHER LOW FOR THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN. GIVEN THE EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCING ENVIRONMENT,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS
MAY RESULT IN MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES ALONG LOW-LYING OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL, WHICH INCLUDES CAMERON AND HIDALGO COUNTIES DUE TO THE
CONCERNS OF URBAN FLOODING. THEREFORE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR CAMERON AND SOUTHERN HIDALGO COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FEW DEGREES LOWER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER.
IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND
INCREASING SWELL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS BEACHES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS AND THEN INLAND OVER
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND PROVIDES SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
REGION. SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S NEAR THE COAST TO THE TRIPLE DIGITS GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-69C CORRIDOR, EXCEPT TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AT
THE BEACH. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND ELEVATED HUMIDITY WILL
RESULT IN TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW RAIN CHANCES OF DAILY SEA-BREEZE
ACTIVITY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, AND A TEMPO HAS BEEN INCLUDED BASED ON THE
HRRR MODEL. THE CONVECTION SHOULD END FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
WITH QUIETER CONDITIONS AT THAT TIME AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. OVERALL, MVFR TO VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE COAST. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER NOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE (50%) OF DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND BY LATE
FRIDAY. MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS RETURN ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 93 81 96 80 / 60 10 10 0
HARLINGEN 94 78 99 76 / 60 20 10 0
MCALLEN 97 80 101 79 / 50 20 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 98 79 103 77 / 30 20 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 82 89 82 / 70 10 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 79 94 79 / 60 10 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ253-255-355-455.
GM...NONE.
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