938
FXUS64 KBRO 162311 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
611 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL HELP SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD, RAIN CHANCES WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AS DAILY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. INCREASED FORCING WILL LEAD TO
A FURTHER INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES TO 40-50% DURING THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES AS
CLOUD COVER INCREASES LATER IN THE WEEK. HEAT INDICES LOOK TO
LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 108, THOUGH THEY MAY BRIEFLY PEAK ABOVE 111
EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE SHORT DURATION OF THESE HIGHER HEAT INDICES
LIKELY WON’T WARRANT HEAT ADVISORIES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 00Z TAF'S, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. AT MOST, GUIDANCE ONLY
INDICATES A LOW (10-15%) CHANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG
OVERNIGHT, BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF'S AS MOST SHORT RANGE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO NOT PORTRAY FOG DEVELOPING, LIKELY
RESULTING FROM EVAPORATION THAT OCCURRED TODAY. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS PICK BACK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 18-21 KNOTS,
POSSIBLY HIGHER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUBSIDING THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH 1-2
FT SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 96 79 97 / 0 10 0 10
HARLINGEN 76 98 75 98 / 0 10 0 10
MCALLEN 79 102 78 102 / 0 10 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 103 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 89 / 0 10 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 93 78 93 / 0 10 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...60-BE
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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